New Bob Same as Old Bob?

Greetings, Readers! I have returned from my brief spring interlude, refreshed and ready to continue the Brew. I hope you all got on well without your weekly dose, but a break was in order with all the school spring breaks, doctor's checkups, and the like. Moving forward, the Brew will come to your inbox periodically because I want to ensure that the topics being discussed are done so in a unique way to ensure that the Brew continues to be an exciting start to your Thursday. Now to this week's Brew:

Is New Bob the Same as the Old Bob?

Late last week, we were greeted with the news that Asad Ayaz, current president of marketing at Walt Disney Studios, had been promoted to Disney's first-ever Chief Brand Officer (CBO). Kudos to Asad. While I have never worked with him, I have admired his work from afar, and several folks I know who have worked with him say that he lives up to that admiration. Although how he will do this new job while still holding on to his current gig is anyone's guess. As Sean McNulty recently discussed in a recent The Wake Up, it'd be nice if Hollywood would allow people to be promoted and not still have to do their old job. This was not, however, what I found interesting about this whole thing.

The Walt Disney Company is an amalgamation of several different brands and plays in many industries. From parks to movies, networks, and streaming, it's all over the map. Asad's promotion opens the question of how all of this will work. Will the team at Walt Disney World still be able to create its campaign materials, or will Asad have to sign off? With Asad reporting in his new role as CBO directly to Bob Iger, one wonders how Josh D'Amaro, the Parks and Experiences Division Chairman, feels about another kid in his sandbox (if that's how this will all work.) It opened up more questions than answers for me, and suddenly, I was reminded of another promotion not so long ago; that of Kareem Daniel.

When Chapek promoted Daniel to lead the now nearly shuttered Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution division, everyone wondered what it was and what Daniel's role would be at the company. Chapek, at the time, promised that it would all shake itself out as the division came together, which turned out now to be the case. The town needed more clarification at the end of Daniel's tenure than at the beginning. I realize a Chief Brand Officer comes with more obvious responsibilities than Daniel's role, but there are similarities in Iger's move here. Namely, the centralization of a segment of Disney's creative messaging and materials, and when you think about it, is it really that different from Chapek's move? Chapek sought to centralize the company's business side, which makes sense given his background. Now, it appears Iger wants to do something similar on the creative side, which makes sense given his insistence that creativity is the sole of the company. 

This shows that Iger has a way of getting things done that causes as little disruption as possible in the day-to-day. Whereas Chapek at times seemed like a bull in a china shop, Iger has returned to make some substantial changes but without all the broken glass, so to speak. It's also true that most folks inside and out of Disney like Iger much more than Chapek, but Iger is much more of a savvier executive in getting things done while keeping the company running smoothly. Only time will tell how much disruption Asad's new role creates, if any, but when you compare the two Bobs and their overall goals for the company, they're not that different after all.

The Air Up There

Let's discuss Amazon's latest theatrical release, Air. Ben Affleck's latest foray into the director's chair opened to a not-great $14.4 million this past weekend. The usual suspects (i.e., Variety, Hollywood Reporter, etc.) have all more or less proclaimed this a hit, which is pretty laughable when you get down into the details. Amazon dropped a cool $130 million (!!!) to make this flick, which doesn't include the sizeable marketing investments. Yes, these numbers are a drop in the bucket from the behemoth that is Amazon, but still, would we call this a hit if it were any other film? Matt Belloni has a great deep dive into this issue in his latest What I'm Hearing newsletter, which I encourage you to read, but there is a bigger issue here. Why was this released in theaters at all? 

Yes, I know, you're all thinking to yourselves, but Keith, you spend hours upon hours touting the importance of the theatrical experience both in this newsletter and on the podcast. How can you possibly say a movie doesn't belong in theaters? I'll tell you because the numbers don't add up. $130 million for a film about a shoe?! From my anecdotal research around Philly, most people were interested in seeing the movie but had no interest in paying to see it in a theater. Why? It doesn't exactly scream that I need to see this in the theater. Belloni said in his newsletter that "this is definitely the most expensive movie shot mostly in an office building" Exactly! To convince people to get off their butts and run to the theaters again, it must look enticing and like it needs to be seen in a theater. No one could watch the Super Mario Brothers materials and not think it should be seen on the big screen, but Air never had that look. It looked more like a made-for-TV movie than a film. Something that I could easily watch something in my living room than at a movie theater. 

Yet again, this goes to something I've brought up numerous times. Executives make movies that they know their friends would like, and a movie like Air is a perfect example. I can't imagine any executive looking rationally at the film and thinking this is a guaranteed money-maker. Still, it had cache with Affleck and Damon attached and was about a seminal moment in pop culture. I'm sure some of the executives at Amazon-owned Air Jordans at one point in time. I'm not saying that solid adult-type dramas such as this don't deserve a shot in the theater. They, of course, do, but at the end of the day, the economics need to make sense, and regardless of how many views it garners on Prime Video once it lands there, the juice was worth the squeeze on this one.

Pages from the Commonplace Book 

This week, we hear from noted author and cultural critic Ralph Waldo Emerson.

"Every man I meet is my master at some point, and in that I learn of him."

Short and sweet yet as profound as many of Commonplace Book selections are. Emerson endorses a concept of lifelong learning and the willingness to change your position, especially if a convincing case is presented to you. Of course, this also requires one to be humble, which we all know isn't quite prevalent these days. 

Deep Thoughts on that Awards Show

We'll have a special episode of Hollywood Breaks this week, so I don't want to take too much away from that discussion, but I do have some initial random thoughts on last weekend's Oscars.

• I was into the Opening Montage initially; who doesn't love a good one? But shoving Kimmel at the end in a ham-fisted way took the steam out of the piece. I know Cruise didn't want to participate, which is puzzling (more on that below,) but you could get a little more creative. You did have ten Best Picture nominees from which to choose. 

• The opening monologue had some good bits in it, and Kimmel did land some haymakers on Will Smith, but it's usually during standard monologues like this that I miss Billy Crystal. For those of you who are too young to remember, google "Billy Crystal Oscar opening numbers" and you'll see a natural entertainer in his prime.

• On the Little Mermaid plug, I know there are advocates for this kind of thing during the Oscars, like Puck's Matt Belloni, but it feels so forced and the show is already way too long. Isn't there a better way to execute this? Apparently, ABC went to all the studios, and everyone passed except WB, and who could blame them with the $7-$10 million asking price. That left Disney paying itself to run a promo, which didn't even play in the Dolby theater. It might have been more effective if they had shown it in the auditorium and then cut to the audience applauding. And the Warner Brother's 100th-anniversary sizzle could have been better. Plus, as some online sleuths have pointed out, many of the movies they showcased weren't even made by Warner Brothers but were part of Ted Turner's acquisition of the MGM library. I'm sure all those laid-off employees love that David Zaslav dropped all that dough to run a sizzle reel with movies that the studio didn't technically make. 

• There were no actual awards surprises. Everything Everywhere All At Once, or EEAAO, as it's now affectionately named, cleaned up, which was no real surprise. Ke Huy Quan and Michelle Yeoh were expected winners and gave great speeches. Best Actor was a bit of a toss-up, but as yours truly called it, Brendan Fraser took it and gave the oddest speech of the night. However, it was great to not only hear Ke Huy thank Jeff Cohen, aka Chunk from Goonies, during his acceptance speech but the hugging Harrison Ford, aka Indiana Jones, as he came up on stage after the Best Picture announcement; well, it was the cherry on top for this 80s kid. It almost makes me feel bad for all of you Gen Y and Millenials. Will you ever be able to have a cultural moment like that as you age? Maybe when a TikTok influencer wins an Oscar? 

• As Kimmel rightly pointed out, it was bad form for both Tom Cruise and James Cameron to pull a no-show. While I think the public gave it little mind, it was odd to have a show about everyone returning to the theaters with the industry's two biggest advocates not even bothering to show up. Can you imagine getting both of them up on that stage and talking about the impact of seeing movies in theaters? That would have been huge, and it probably could have created a viral moment and one that didn't involve an assault. But as with all things Hollywood, ego got in the way, which provided reassurance that not everything is changing in Hollywood. 

Standing Atop The Mount

What is in the water over in Hollywood? Paramount Pictures Marketing continues to crush it, opening Screaming VI (yes 6) to over $44 million, besting the previous installment by over $14 million—Huzzah to Marc Weinstock and his entire team. The team is firing on all cylinders. They have barely missed a beat over the last few releases. Yes, there have been stinkers like Babylon, but overall they have successfully opened films throughout the last couple of years. 

I know that the theaters have been clamoring for more movies, but Paramount's success might make a good argument that, from a marketing standpoint, not stacking the release calendar and spacing out releases leads to better returns in the long run. Just think about it. Giving your marketing department more time to focus its resources and build an audience for a movie can pay dividends, much like the argument that films get better if there is more time to develop them (make a movie, not a release date); the same logic can apply to marketing. Obviously, there will be movies that no amount of turd polishing will help, but studios could put themselves in a much better financial position with more focused marketing and less "ready-fire-aim" marketing.

Paramount may have a challenge with the upcoming Dungeons and Dragons release (awareness isn't great.) Still, overall, their record has been impressive, particularly with the industry's challenges over the last few years. Of course, this could all change over the new few months depending on their releases, but I'm not sure. The team over at Paramount has shown that despite the loss of the 30-second TV commercial and the 30 million strong TV shows, you can still open a movie with a strategically sound marketing plan and content. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book 

This week, we'll pull from a more modern source: Cartoonist Bil Keane, best known for his work on the Sunday newspaper strip The Family Circle:

"Yesterday's the past, tomorrow's the future, but today is a gift. That's why it's called the present."

It is essential to savor the present in an industry like ours, where we constantly look toward the next release or campaign. Jeffrey Godsick, EVP at Fox, while I was there and now works at Sony, said something similar to our department after the first Avatar had reached #1 of all time. He reminded us to savor this moment because it may never happen again, and he was right, just like Bil Keane. Working in this industry is a great experience, but you need to savor those special moments to make all the crazy feel worth it. 

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Fahrenheit 2023

I have often discussed here the need for more original ideas when it comes to filmmaking. Even in the previous Brew discussing the Super Bowl commercials, it was hard not to get slightly dismayed by the number of movies that were sequels and reboots. But why are there so many sequels and reboots? Some of it is the fear that dominates much of the studio suites and wanting the built-in audiences that naturally come with reboots and sequels, but is that the only reason? I struggled to develop more than that until I read this piece from Law & Liberty from Dr. Richard Gunderman. 

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Gunderman opens his piece by discussing the distance between the Indiana University School of Medicine and the Ray Bradbury Center. For those who don't know, Ray Bradbury was a prolific writer of fantasy, horror, science fiction, and mystery stories. I first heard of him while watching the film Something Wicked This Way Comes, released in 1983, based on his short story and screenplay, and released by Disney of all places. Gunderman relates that Bradbury spent his life with books and believed it was the only real place to discover and truly open up your imagination:

"Bradbury spent his life with books, not because he was a bookworm but because he knew they are the best resources available to expand the human imagination. We can never become another person, but we can imagine how another person sees the world, feels about it, and wishes it would be. Imaginative literature allows us to glimpse the full range of human possibility, to consider how our lives might turn out if we pursued different paths, to ponder how it would feel to give in to and resist various forms of temptation, and what, ultimately, we aspire to contribute through our lives. It is impossible to become a good investigator, whether in the examination room, the laboratory, the classroom, or the boardroom without continually nurturing and developing one's imagination. We must imagine how life could be different before we can fully appreciate what it is. "

Gunderman's main point in his article is how important that aspect of imagination from diving into books is to becoming a good doctor. Still, it also applies to becoming a good executive and producer. That might be what is missing from our industry and our culture. The ability to dive into a book and activate those aspects of the imagination that Gunderman describes so well in the quote above is crucial to opening the creative elements of the brain. What better way to become a better visual storyteller than by reading those who do it so well in books? As I've mentioned before, the industry has become so isolated from its audience that it doesn't know how to make movies that will put butts in the seats, but it may also be that they've lost the ability to activate the imagination and expand it beyond what has been seen and done before. 

One of Bradbury's most famous books, Fahrenheit 451, is named after the temperature at which book paper ignites. It's a dystopian novel that imagines books being banned, and any discovered are burned by roaming "firemen." Although book burning is the story's main thrust, as Gunderman points out, it's more about killing the human imagination. Luckily, we are not at the point where Bradbury's vision of the world is a reality, but this wonderful medium of film and its creators, need to re-open their eyes to the power of books to open their imagination, or we're looking at Super Bowl movie ads in ten years with the same movies we just saw advertised in their fourteenth iteration or fifth reboot. God help us. 

Ant -Meh

The official kick-off to the next phase of the Marvel Universe: Ant-Man and The Wasp: Quantumania arrived with a bang: $106 million domestic opening and $121 overseas. Not too shabby, and then this past weekend happened. It dropped nearly 70% only to bring in $31.9 million. While still #1, this does not bode well for a solid run. Although not entirely a surprise, given the poor reviews and audience exits, Marvel has to be slightly concerned. This continues a trend that began last summer with the latest  Dr. Strange and Thor and now continues with Ant-Man: tepid reviews and audience reaction. The movies are still crushing it at the box office, but if these drops become regular, it will become more difficult for them to turn a profit. 

This may be why the Iger pullback on the Disney content machine may be a blessing in disguise for Kevin Feige and his team. They have been firing on all cylinders, churning out shows for Disney+ and movies for theaters. Now that a slowdown has been initiated, Feige and his team time can focus on ensuring the quality of Marvel films doesn't suffer as it so clearly has the last couple of years. Much like with James Cameron, I would never want to bet against Marvel, especially Kevin Feige, but there is something slightly off, and I prefer they whip it into shape before they start working on my beloved X-Men.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Since we're on the subject of Ray Bradbury, let's stick with him in this week's Commonplace Book. From Fahrenheit 451:

 "Stuff your eyes with wonder. Live as if you'd drop dead in ten seconds. See the world. It's more fantastic than any dream made or paid for in factories."

"Stuff your eyes with wonder." That quote should be on the top of every studio execs office. So get to stuffing, Hollywood; we can take only so many versions of the Fast and the Furious. 

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Saint Bob Speaketh

At this point, one thing is crystal clear: Bob Iger is good at this. I caught a snippet of his interview yesterday morning on CNBC, and it's obvious he is very comfortable explaining his decision-making. Contrast that with the often stilted delivery of Bob Chapek, you can see the dynamic difference in personality. I'm not the only one who feels this way. The stock is up, so Wall Street is happy, and Nelson Peltz, the activist investor who was gearing up for a proxy fight, backed off this morning after Iger's interview stating plainly that he is pleased with the plans announced on Wednesday's earnings call. All in all, a good day for Bob Iger and Disney. Friend of Hollywood Breaks and Ankler Columnist, Sean McNulty, has a great rundown of the finer points of the earnings call in his The Wake Up newsletter, which you can find here. 

The broad strokes are this: revenue was up, beating estimates, income was below expectations but not concerningly so, the cash bleed from streaming has slowed, and the parks are crushing it. Additionally, they've re-org 'd the company, yet again, into three divisions: Film/TV (including Hulu and Disney+) headed up by Alan Bergman and Dana Walden (her ascent continues apace), ESPN and ESPN+ under current ESPN Chief James Pitaro, and the ass-kicking Parks and Experience division headed up by Josh D'Amaro. The big news aside from the re-org and the part that pleased the Street and Mr. Peltz was the massive cost-cutting. Iger made no bones about it: Disney spent like drunken sailors, and now, it's time to get sober. They're targeting over $5 billion in cuts with about $2.5 billion in Admin costs, which includes a larger than expected 7k in layoffs and $3 billion in content cuts. So what does all of this mean? As McNulty points out, if you work in marketing across any aspect of Disney, it's probably time to update that resume. The chatter on the call focused heavily on all the extraneous marketing spending, so reading between the lines, marketing across all divisions may be seeing a bulk of the cuts. It's widely expected that the parks division, which was hammered during the early days of COVID, will be spared this time around, which makes sense given their rapid financial recovery post-COVID.

The decisions have been made, and as mentioned, investors and the Street appear to be happy with Iger's moves. He has laid out a plan to reset much of what Chapek had put in place and believes that streaming will still achieve profitability by 2024. Let's see if this all comes to pass, including if he does step aside after two years as his contract stipulates. Now the way forward has been set; the next question will become the matter of succession. Who will take the chair once Iger vacates? Clearly, the front runners are Bergman, Walden, Pitaro, and D'Amaro, but let's not forget CFO Christine McCarthy, who will be charged with identifying the savings and cuts to reach that $5 billion marker. The other division heads will now be fully accountable for meeting these strategic objectives. Let the bake-off begin!

It's Getting Real

In addition to the news of the coming layoffs at Disney, UTA announced yesterday it was also making cuts. It's becoming a pattern, with more layoffs across the industry each week. I'm hard-pressed to remember a time when there was such a constant stream of job losses across such a short period—all in all, not the greatest news. Many of you, including yours truly, have been a part of the boom and bust of working in the entertainment industry, but so much has changed over the last few years.

When I was let go from New Line years ago, the industry was still in a growth cycle, so even though the initial panic of being laid off was a bit unsettling, I knew there would be another opportunity waiting for me on the other side. So there was, but we are now in a completely different reality. Thousands upon thousands of people are losing their jobs, and there are not enough jobs available to enable them to get back on their feet. This is not to say that all is hopeless. I'm a case study of ways one can pivot to continue their career, but there will be more struggles than successes if the industry continues in its current state. Richard Rushfield has a solid column addressing some of the fundamentals the industry needs to manage now that the utter destruction foretold by COVID has subsided. The old and, frankly, new business models need to be fixed. We need to find a new way to keep the business growing, not stagnating. It remains to be seen if the current crop of leaders can achieve any of that, but at least Iger has been willing to admit that mistakes were made, and righting the ship must be the priority. This is the only way to return growth to the industry so that those who have or will be pink-slipped can forsee a light in all the darkness.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we turn to the author of the beautiful short stories, The Legend of Sleepy Hollow and Rip Van Winkle, Washington Irving, who offers some advice on facing adversity and trouble in life: 

"Great minds have purposes, others have wishes. Little minds are tamed and subdued by misfortune; but great minds rise above them."

I have a sneaking suspicion from conversations with some readers and listeners of Hollywood Breaks that most of you fall under the great minds category. Remember, to paraphrase Harvey Dent borrowing from theologian Thomas Fuller in The Dark Knight; it's always darkest before the dawn. 

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Oscar Noms

The Academy released its Oscar nominations this week. Yes, there are movies viewed by more than just the NY/LA set in the nominations. Top Gun: Maverick, Avatar: WOW, Elvis and Everyone Everywhere All At Once were all crowd-pleasers. Thus, the Academy has somewhat dodged the bullet of complaints that they never nominate movies people see anymore. Can they now produce a show that will entertain its audience? Or will it become another self-indulgent inside-baseball celebration that no one outside the industry cares about? As I said, we're heading for the latter especially given that the current Academy CEO, Bill Kramer, wants to bring back all the awards to the main telecast, unlike last year, where a few were awarded pre-telecast and then shown in brief clips. This means we'll be treated to a four-hour snooze fest. 

Just once, I would like to write or discuss the Academy and the Oscars with a sense of optimism and cheer. The only thing that this year's Oscars will prove is whether or not the films nominated can deliver an audience. With that question finally settled, we can move on to making the show entertaining again.

Timothee Chalamet

AppleTV+ has a new branding ad starring everyone's favorite emo actor, Timothee Chalamet. At first, I thought it was silly to cast Chalamet, an actor more popular with the industry, versus the average moviegoer. However, my wife informed me that he is, in fact, very popular on the Facebook Mom blogs that my wife frequents, so they've got that demo locked up. And he's arguably a more popular choice than Jon Hamm. 

Still, the ad itself wasn't what intrigued me the most. I realized that Apple has finally recognized that they have a branding issue with their streamer service. For years, Apple seemed to exist just on being "Apple." They didn't need to do the yeoman's work that so many other brands have to do over the years to ensure consumer loyalty. They already had it in spades. They just had to release a new product, and bam, it was instantly popular. That's how they thought the launch of AppleTV+ would go. Do you all remember the big launch event at Apple Headquarters with Speilberg, Oprah, Reese Witherspoon, and Chris Evans? They handled it similarly to how they tackle product launches: Announce and let the fans do the work. Alas, it didn't work out that way, and despite having been the first streamer to win the Best Picture Oscar (Coda), they're still viewed as an afterthought by many a consumer. Hence, the Chalamet ad. An undeniable attempt to showcase all the talent they have going on AppleTV+ but will it be enough?

Apple has been throwing money around to snag many of the town's most prominent projects, and with the hiring of former Disney Marketing Prez Ricky Strauss, they have signaled they realize they have to start getting down into the muck like everyone else and drop the above fray attitude. They still have the inherent liability of not having an additional library of titles to pull from and the confusion of how to find shows. The great Netflix correction and Disney's bumpy ride this year have given Apple the heads up that you can't just keep spending money without any real plan for profitability. The Chalamet ad may help distinguish themselves as a movie star player but will that matter in a world with almost no movie stars left? Everyone rushed into streaming, seeing it as the future of entertainment. Apple more or less said we're Apple, we can do this entertainment thing, no problem. It shall be interesting to see if the ad brings AppleTV+ the success they're hoping for. They threw enough money at it, so let's see how that ROI turns out. 

Avatar: Way of Water

James Cameron is a visual master. I saw Avatar: Way of Water this past weekend in IMAX 3D, which is the only way to see it. It was a jaw-dropping visual experience. Having worked on the original, it was fascinating to see how much the technology has advanced in the 13 years since Avatar. Every visual just seemed to pop off the screen, and in true Cameron style, the 3D effects weren't some random creature jumping at you on screen but a completely immersive experience.  

However, the movie itself was a complete letdown. All I've written above could have easily been written about a film at a science center versus a cinematic event. Honestly, at times, that's what I was watching. A good 45 minutes of the film feels dedicated to discovering the underworld of Pandora. It was all great to a certain degree, but it felt like Cameron just got so excited about how cool everything looked that he didn't know where or when to stop. The film could have used some trimming because I felt those 3 hours and 10 minutes. The story also felt so derivative. I don't know what happened, but Cameron has lost the storytelling touch he had in movies like Terminator and Aliens. The dialogue was painfully corny, and I'm not sure when Cameron lost respect for the military, but those characters are so cartoonish and ridiculous it almost wholly pulls you out of the movie. 

I had high hopes that Cameron would build on the world he created in Avatar, creating a rich mythology that could sustain an additional three movies. Alas, he became obsessed with the visuals that everything else fell by the wayside. With $2 billion in box office thus far, I don't anticipate that much will change for the next installment, but at least I got to see the Oppenheimer trailer in IMAX3D. Damn, that movie looks incredible. Come on, Nolan, don't let me down! 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we hear from English poet Alexander Pope (A. Pope for you DaVinci Code fans.)  

"Words are like leaves; and where they most abound, much fruit of sense beneath is seldom found."

Anyone who has ever sat in any pointless meeting or met any number of Hollywood execs knows that truer words have never been spoken.

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Remember the Parks

I just returned from my fifth visit to Walt Disney World in Florida, but it was the first time I took my kids. I have always enjoyed going to Disney World, but it's an entirely different experience when you take your children; it's even better. Seeing my son's face when we rode Slinky Dog Dash at Hollywood Studios (Great ride, by the way) will forever be in my memory. Or my daughter's when she got to meet a life-sized Olaf or how they both hugged Goofy at the character breakfast. All fantastic memories which I won't forget. I hope to make more in the inevitable return trip. 

All of this is to say that the Walt Disney Company needs to remember the parks. The trip was fantastic, and I had a blast, but it had its issues. Several of the rides broke down while we were there. Granted, some, like Space Mountain, have been around since the open, so they will have their issues, but Rise of the Resistance is barely a couple of years old, and it broke down several times while we were there, including while my son and I were standing in line. The Genie Plus system is a tad annoying and pricey, and it doesn't make sense to have Genie Plus and Lightning Lane separate. It feels like price gauging and is unnecessarily confusing. Despite the cold snap that hit this past weekend, the parks were crowded the entire time we were there, which means Disney has created something that all families do, almost as a right of passage despite the headaches. However, the past couple of years has seen some cracks in that loyalty.

Bob Chapek's tenure atop the House of Mouse became so rocky because it seemed he was exploiting the parks to pay the content budget for Disney Plus and the studio. That may or may not have been the case, but it certainly seemed that way to all the die-hard Disney fans who are the lifeblood of the parks' success. As most of you know, Nelson Peltz, a partner at Trian Fund Management, is mounting a proxy fight with Disney over a board seat. He has made relatively obvious claims, such as there needs to be a focus on cost control, and Disney has aggressively pushed back on most of his claims, but he is correct in that Disney has somewhat lost focus. 

A fellow traveler on a trip to Disney this past week asked me what I would do if I were running the company, and I said that I would focus on the employees and getting the parks right. Yes, streaming and content production are essential, but they have been given top priority at the expense of other business areas. Burning cash on a division with no real profitability plan while ignoring your cash cow is not a good business strategy. The parks have been overlooked, given the nonstop breakdowns of rides. The employees have also been through the wringer the last few years, and I can tell you this, the experience at WDW solely relies on those employees to keep the guests happy, so they must be a priority. Now, since Iger's return, it's clear that Disney realizes that adjustments are necessary. The company has already made some changes to the park experience to ease the backlash, but they can't take their eyes off the prize. 

Whether theaters survive or streaming becomes the wave of the future, the one thing that will always remain will be the trip to Disney. It's one of few things that is truly an American experience that reaches across generations. Whether you love it or hate it, you will never forget the feeling when you first walked into the Magic Kingdom and saw that castle. A feeling you will relish sharing with your children for the first time. Disney needs to be reminded of that and keep it top of mind. 

A Note on the Globes

The Golden Globes returned to primetime television after a publicist imposed exile. I only caught bits and pieces as my wife hates watching the awards shows, so I see bits and pieces between commercial breaks of our regular nightly viewing. A few thoughts: Jerrod Carmichael was barely there other than the awkward monologue, but Jennifer Coolidge was hilarious, and she reminded me of what makes the Globes so unique. For me, I love trying to find the executives and what tables they're sitting at or checking out who's mingling with whom during the commercial break. These are the things that make the Globes so unique. However, the viewership numbers could have been better. A total of around 6.3 million viewers watched. Granted, the show was on a Tuesday instead of its usual Sunday, so that may have played a part, but it's not an encouraging sign. 

The Globes had nominated movies and shows that are and were, for the most part, very popular. The Oscars have gotten a ton of grief for not nominating popular films, and many have suggested that a Top Gun: Maverick nomination may be the answer to their viewer woes, but the Globes results don't bode well for the Academy. The fact is that awards shows in their current format are dead. A radical reinvention is needed, and the Globes are in the perfect position to make such a move. They will always be distinct simply because they combine TV and Film and big stars show up even if they don't know if they will win. Plus, there is always a chance for a bit of goofiness that prevents the "Oh so Serious" vibe that the Oscars often try and fail to hide. As our Ankler friend, Richard Rushfield, often notes, we are in the entertainment industry, yet we are incapable of producing an entertaining awards show. If these shows want to remain relevant, they need to showcase they can entertain and provide an experience their audience can't miss. Otherwise, they can turn off the cameras, keep the ballroom, and award away. One wonders how small the attendance would be if that were the case. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we bring Mark Twain, aka Samuel Clemens, into the Commonplace Book. Author William Faulkner called the Adventures of Tom Sawyer author "the father of American Literature." Well, let's see what Mr. Twain has to offer us this week:

"Continous improvement is better than delayed perfection."

As is often the case with the Commonplace Book, the authors often provide simple yet profound advice. The Board at the Walt Disney Company and Bob Iger can take Mr. Twain's advice to heart, as we all should. 

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A Brew to Wrap Up The Year

Most of you are probably still recovering from the past week's festivities, with a few more last Hurrahs before we put a bow on the year 2022. An interesting year, to say the least, particularly in the business of entertainment. Here at The Brew, we've got some fun changes coming up in the new year, but we'll hold those until we officially cross the threshold of 2023. The business tends to grind to a halt this time of year, so this week will be more of a stream-of-consciousness but don't worry, we'll still have a final Page from the Commonplace Book to wrap up the year.  

So about Avatar. I haven't seen it yet. Trying to find about 4 hours of free time isn't easy during the holiday break, but I will squeeze it in once the kids return to school. Regardless, as of this writing, the flick has garnered about $955 million globally, which is impressive. However, disappointing numbers out of China and the winter storm that smashed most of the county last weekend are definitely making some Disney execs nervous, especially with three more sequels in the pipeline. While there is still plenty of runway left to boost those numbers, I'm not confident it will break the record of the original. Only time will tell. 

Speaking of time, no one decided to set aside time for Babylon. Yikes, what a bomb of the first order. Listen, I loved the look of that campaign. The first teaser is a master class of creative trailer editing, but it was tough to figure out what exactly the movie was about, and obviously, audiences couldn't be bothered. Oh well, Paramount still has all that Top Gun: Maverick change hanging around, so I don't think it'll hurt too much, but from a marketing perspective, it's never fun to watch a movie that you put a lot of time and effort into to miss the mark entirely but the beauty of something like this, is you learn from the mistakes and move on to the next. So, folks at Paramount Marketing, you lost this weekend, kids, but that doesn't mean you have to like it. 

As regular readers know, I'm a fan of Adam Grant, author, and Professor of Organizational Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania Wharton School of Business. Well, he recently posted the following on his Instagram:

Adam Grant (@adamgrant) • Instagram photos and videos

This post is particularly timely given that this is probably the most unproductive week of the year, but many people are forced to head to the office for the reason Grant highlights above. With the backlash to remote work growing and more and more companies pushing a return to the status quo, a willingness for more flexibility in time off will be crucial if only to achieve the balance that remote work has granted many workers and made it so popular. While working at Fox, I always felt guilty about taking time off. Mainly because my department head at the time made us all feel like we were sacrificing our careers if we took time off. A lack of time off in the creative field leads to burnout and garbage work. Think of how many great ideas have popped into your head when you are sitting eating goldfish and watching the latest season of Jack Ryan, and into your head pops the answer to the great creative puzzle you've been trying to solve for the last week. So all bosses and supervisors heed Dr. Grant's advice and give him a follow on Instagram or Linkedin. He has many gems like this throughout the year. 

It also looks like the Puss in Boots sequel might have a decent run. (Pssst--hey studio bosses, get some decent kids' content in theaters asap!) While not necessarily blowing out the box office, the stellar reviews, great word of mouth (95% critics, 93% audience Rotten Tomatoes scores)alongside the utter lack of anything kid-friendly in the theaters right now, this thing could have some legs. Interestingly, I've read several Twitter threads with folks claiming it's better than the original, which, amazingly enough, came out over a decade ago. The Avatar team could take some lessons from the Puss in Boots crew. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

As I mentioned last week, I headed west to my hometown to spend some time with my family. My parents have lived in my childhood home for over 40 years, and they are now contemplating a move to the eastern side of PA to be closer to my brother and me. Well, forty years in one house, one accumulates a lot of stuff. To spare myself (and the other movers) the pleasure of moving all that stuff, I've been slowly gathering books and whatnot that I find interesting in my parents' library. I've long thought that my parents only collected encyclopedias, medical journals (my dad was a doctor), and the latest Tom Clancy novel. Well, lo and behold, they do have some fascinating volumes beyond the latest Dan Brown. One of them I picked up is called Leaves of Gold, initially published in the late 40s. It's a giant collection of quotes. Well, the actual subtitle is "An Anthology of Prayers, Memorable Phrases, and Inspiration Verse and Prose' aka A Commonplace Book. You better believe I snapped this one up, and I shall treat you, dear readers, with quotes from said volume in the forthcoming year, beginning this week. So Enjoy!

"It is better to forget the things that hurt us, 

And to live each day and take whatever comes, 

With the hope that by tomorrow

There will come a balm for sorrow

And help to master life's important sums!

There's a strength that comes to us every time we suffer,

And our will grows stronger every time we fight.

Let us then be doubly grateful

For the things that disappoint us;

They only come to lead us to the light

-Helen Mocksett Stork

As we head into the final week of 2022, looking back on all our disappointments and achievements, let us take Ms. Stork's advice and look upon each experience as a chance to lead us to the light.

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The Return of the Kilar

This week witnessed the re-emergence of the former CEO of the former Warner Media, Jason Kilar, in a piece he wrote and published in the Wall Street Journal this past Monday. I have mixed feelings about Kilar's reign at Warner Media. I liked the idea behind "Project Popcorn," pushing the entire WB film 2021 slate during some of the worst of the Covid times onto the then fledgling streaming service, HBOMax, but I think Kilar showed his inexperience with the community by not even bothering to communicate with the talent behind all those films before announcing the plan. Kilar's emotional intelligence was slightly lacking in that instance. That said, this article was an interesting read. 

Kilar begins in 2010 with an in-depth description of how the industry was riding high on cable bundles, DVD sales, and increased ticket prices, all leading folks in the industry to believe the fun could never stop. And then, the bottom fell out. Although Kilar positions it more as an adjustment to smartphones and streaming, one aspect he leaves out is that after the bottom fell out of the DVD market, international began all the rage, especially in India and China. Many felt they were new gold mines, and for a while, they filled that hole until they didn't. And we all went headfirst into the streaming era. Kilar doesn't offer an opinion on the rise of streamers; as the first CEO of Hulu, he might be slightly biased. Still, with the dive into the streamer era, all the conglomerates thought they could be the next Netflix, throwing cash raised on cheap debt to anyone and everyone. They were always looking for a boost in subscribers until Wall Street decided that a little thing called profit still mattered. Another aspect that Kilar misses is how the studios more or less built Netlfix by lending them their content versus actually trying to develop their own service and saving them the hassle of repurchasing it, which many subsequently did at great expense. Although one could argue that was Hulu, its structure was confusing to consumers and investors, so it didn't become relevant until it started offering Live TV.

Kilar still has an enduring passion for the business and its power to create moving and fantastic stories that stretch across generations. This was one aspect that Kilar needed to focus on more during his tenure at Warner Media. Many viewed him solely as a disruptor, a "tech bro" sent from up north to fail fast and often. At least, judging by this article, he wanted to push the industry to the next level. He does offer solutions: (a man after my own heart) such as revitalizing the theatrical experience (uh, yes, please, as I have said till I'm blue in the face on Hollywood Breaks.) Also, potentially eventizing big cultural shows such as House of Dragon in a theater (hat tip to HB contributor Robin Geisen, as she has mentioned this repeatedly.) He also suggests creating more personalized digital experiences in a more "differentiated and personalized way," which sounds like the meta-verse to me. He also should have mentioned something about the lack of leadership in general and a new upcoming leadership class, which will be a big problem unless addressed soon (more on that below.) However, Kilar is one who truly believes the industry will innovate once we get through this bumpy period. As we often say on Hollywood Breaks, this is a time of immense change and opportunity. It just simply takes the right people taking advantage at the right moment. I wouldn't be surprised if Kilar resurfaces elsewhere in the business. Cinemark perhaps? 

Prime Time

Speaking of saviors of the industry looks like Amazon is gunning for that top prize. Last week came the announcement that Amazon plans on investing up to $1 billion in theatrical films with an output of about 12-15 films per year. Most of those films will come at first from the newly acquired MGM, with Amazon Prime ramping up over the next few years. Still, the news was met with loud hosannas across the industry, including a nice bump to the cinema stocks. This is all good news as far as I'm concerned. Theaters need this lifeline, and hopefully, it provides an opportunity for the theatrical experience to evolve, which, as we've previously discussed, it simply must do. Message to AMC et al., you have an opportunity here, don't blow it. 

Last week also brought the news that Amazon Studios head Jennifer Salke would expand her purview to include the recently acquired MGM, both its film and TV operations. While the structure isn't simple (MGM Marketing Head Stephen Bruno will now report to Amazon Studios Marketing Chief Sue Kroll, who will report to Salke), it does settle some of the questions of who is running things over there at Amazon. Now that it has been finalized, there is still the big question of who will run the MGM film side (Vernon Sanders, who runs Amazon TV, will oversee MGM TV reporting to Salke.) Emma Watts was supposedly courted, and then Amazon passed on her, so the chair remains open. Here would be an ample opportunity to start thinking about the future and look to a diverse slate of execs other than the same group that has been running the studios for the last few decades. Salke spent the bulk of her career in television, so she may not have the level of exposure to some of the younger talent at studios around town, but all she'd have to do would be to make a few phone calls, and I'm sure a few names would percolate up. There is ample talent around town right now. Amazon and Salke need to expand their horizons beyond the same names that have been bandied about over the last few years. There is risk involved, but this is a business of risks. There are no sure things, but Amazon could make a statement by finding someone who may not necessarily be on everyone's radar. Find the next Thalberg or Zanuck so the industry can prepare for the future and not rely on its past. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Wednesday marked the 81st anniversary of the attack on Pearl Harbor. Most of you already know the famous quote from FDR and "the date that will live in infamy," but I thought this week, we might turn to one of our staunchest allies during the war, Winston Churchill, the prime minister of Great Britain. Writing about the night he found out about the attack in his history of WW II, Churchill wrote:

"I thought of a remark . . . that the United States is like a gigantic boiler. Once the fire is lighted under it there is no limit to the power it can generate.' Being saturated and satiated with emotion and sensation, I went to bed and slept the sleep of the saved and thankful."

The boiler analogy represents the limitless possibilities of which our country is capable when we all work together. Given our current cultural and political climate, one wonders how hot that boiler would burn today.

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An Open Letter To Bob Iger

I know...I know. Here we got with another Founder's Brew about Bob Iger. Part of me knows I shouldn't keep beating this dead horse, but the horse is still twitching a little. There have been countless takes on what Iger needs to do to right the ship and the need to identify a successor, a position with which I agree. However, what has yet to be discussed is what to do about the evident sagging employee morale. If, as Iger mentions, he wants to be about the creative again, then he needs to focus on rebuilding morale. I'm happy that the first thing he did was hold a town hall (perhaps he read the latest Brew), but more is needed. I drafted the letter below with some suggestions for building morale and positioning the company for future success. Enjoy:

December 1. 2022

Mr. Robert A. Iger

Chief Executive Officer

The Walt Disney Company

500 South Buena Vista Street

Burbank, CA 91521

Dear Mr. Iger:

Typically, I would offer congratulations to someone receiving a major job like yours, but I think the reason for return may require something more along the lines of "I wish you the best of luck." A sigh of relief has greeted your return by many who have felt demoralized over these last few years. While you must achieve many high-level objectives, I encourage you to recognize those demoralized employees. There are many tough decisions ahead, but if you genuinely want to revitalize the creative engine of the company, I urge you to take steps that showcase the value the employees provide to the company. To that end, I've listed some ideas with a minimum cost that can showcase how much you value your employees and set up the company for future success. 

1. Leadership Training - Yes, you must select your successor, but that is only one step to ensuring Disney's future success. It would help if you began to nurture homegrown talent by creating an internal leadership program that exposes high-potential employees to all facets of the Walt Disney Company, from streaming to parks. It would help if you also pulled from every division of the company. I participated in something similar while I was at 20th Century Fox, which was one of my career highlights. If you, in fact, already have a program like this, then you need to broadcast it far and wide. Not only will it encourage current employees to strive to be selected for the program, but it could be a phenomenal recruiting tool to help you find the best and brightest. It could also help your other division leaders be exposed to the talent they may only come across occasionally.

2. Break Down the Silos - From the folks at Disney I've spoken to, you have more silos at Disney than the Iowan countryside. Disney has grown immensely over the last 15 years, primarily due to your astute leadership in acquiring powerful brands to supplement the already powerful Disney brand. However, you had several very distinct cultures that should have meshed better. You only have to look at the drastic differences between recently acquired 20th Century Fox to see how this can become a problem. It would help if you encouraged cross-pollination as much as possible. While the leadership training I suggested above can help this, this could be only one facet. One initiative I tried to start up a Fox was a creative incubator. We had many of the same silos at Fox, and I found it frustrating, particularly when I was in Australia (more on that below), that there were so many ways that all facets of the company could work together, but it wasn't happening. My idea was quite simple. Select a group of employees from each division who could become high potentials and send them off to a location that isn't necessarily right where they work daily. You need to get them out of their comfort zone and push them to mingle with their fellow employees who they don't necessarily see on their day-to-day. Finally, give them a current creative or business challenge and see what they come up with. You never know what solutions or ideas may be sparked, but the point is that you will foster relationships that will continue long after the incubator has disbanded. Now, they obviously can only go for a short time as people will still have their day jobs, but it will open people's eyes to the bevy of opportunities and talent that the company offers about which they need to learn. 

3. International Exchange - Disney is a global company with operations worldwide. You need to milk that for all it's worth, both for retaining and recruiting employees. During my time at Fox, I had the opportunity to participate in an exchange where I was sent to Sydney, Australia, for three months to work in the marketing department of News Limited, the Australian arm of the then-named 21st Century Fox. What a glorious experience it was. They were launching their iPad versions of their newspapers. I got a deep dive into the inner workings of putting all that tech together and the operations of harnessing the resources across the country to achieve this one goal. Not too bad for an Associate Director of Creative Advertising. It was an invaluable experience that taught me much about myself personally as well as my skills as a leader and communicator. Imagine the skills you could uncover if you were to ship someone from Burbank down to the Parks or vice versa; even better, send a parks person to work in an international distribution office in another country. There will be a need to ensure some skill overlap, but the opportunities are endless with a company like Disney. It was the highlight of my career at Fox, and it could expose you to countless potential new leaders and ideas that would have never happened otherwise.

It has been reported that you feel the "soul" of Disney is dying. As an outside observer, you are correct on that score. I have been a fan of Disney since I was a kid. I even got to peek into the secret city underneath the Magic Kingdown in the "business of entertainment" class that was offered as a guest of Disney World (You should bring that back, by the way), so I've been a fan for some time. My parents often joked that I'd end up running Disney World one day, which could still happen, so I do care about what happens to this iconic brand, not the least of which because I love this industry, and its success depends very much on your success. These are only a few ideas to help encourage those employees who provide much of the creative ingenuity you rightly praise and identify potential future leaders to whom you may otherwise never be exposed. I hope you find these suggestions helpful. I wish you the best of luck in re-fortifying the House of Mouse.

Sincerely,

Keith Rauch

Founder/President Vision Craft Brew

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Since we have an open letter to Bob Iger as the subject of this week's newsletter, we should make it an Iger issue all the way around. To that end, I present the man himself from his memoir The Ride of a Lifetime:

"At its essence, good leadership isn't about being indispensable; it's about helping others be prepared to step into your shoes - giving them access to your own decision-making, identifying the skills they need to develop and helping them improve, and sometimes being honest with them about why they're not ready for the next step up."

One hopes Iger will take his advice as he begins the search for his next successor. It's excellent advice, but sometimes those who give advice often are not that best at taking it. 

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Are the Gates Beginning to Crack?

Last week, the New York Times published a lengthy piece on the current state of #METoo and Hollywood's turn to a more "woke" posture. The gist of the article is that "woke" isn't working, but there still needs to be an openness to new storytellers and talent. Not simply write off gay comedies because "Bros" tanked, for instance. Also, I want to give kudos to Dan Lin for lending his name to the piece. Granted, he didn't say anything earth-shattering or offensive by the Twitteratti's standard, but most of those interviewed refused to give their names simply out of fear of being destroyed for saying the wrong thing. Richard Rushfield's Tuesday Ankler column touches on the fear aspect, and the fact that Hollywood is currently out of touch with the broader audience:

"Everyone in Hollywood has become so damn strategic, so fearful for their careers, for their brand, walking on eggshells around what they can say, can't say, what they are expected to say. They fear a wrong word that will bring them disgrace. And equally, they fear a misstep, an embarrassing flop, that will cast them out of the pack."

Rushfield also gives a shout-out to the Entertainment Strategy Guy's fantastic series on The American Viewer. As you regular readers of the Brew know, this has long been my position on the current state of Hollywood. This has been an issue for Hollywood for quite some time. It's only metastasized over the last decade. Since 2016, it has only worsened due to the inability of anyone to agree on anything anymore. So what's the solution?

I still think Hollywood is capable of creating crowd-pleasers. Look at Top Gun: Maverick and the forthcoming Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Top Gun has grossed over $1.4 billion, and Wakanda Forever is forecasted to hit $175 million this weekend. The problem is that these types of movies are so few and far between. So again, what's the solution?

First and foremost, move the hell out of the coasts. New York and Los Angeles have so dominated the industry that's it not surprising that so many people get trapped in the bubble. This isn't just a living-in-the-bubble issue either. This is quickly becoming a recruitment issue as well. As LA and New York struggle to recover from the pandemic and quality of life issues continue to drag on both locales, one has to wonder who in their right mind would want to move to NY or LA, especially right now. I often said that LA is a great city to be young and single but given its current state, I doubt I would still say that. Plus, with the cost of living being so out of control in both locations, what young person would want to move to either city and make a garbage assistant salary when they have the potential to take a gig in Nashville with a much more promising quality of life? If we want to bring down those gates in which so many work and live behind, then we need to be able to draw people from all over. I, for one, do not want an industry filled with Hollywood kids who have never stepped out of the bubble except for the unexpected trip to Aspen. 

Now, moving out of the hallowed halls of LA and NY will be challenging, but there are other cities for the industry to grow. Austin has become a popular spot, as have Nashville and Atlanta. Atlanta has become a massive production spot, so moving to that neck of the woods might be a more accessible lift. I know that many of you have heard me say this before, but it is of utmost importance to the future of the business.

One last thought. Actor Chris Evans was recently announced People Magazine's Sexiest Man Alive for 2022. While I often find most of these profiles slightly insufferable, there was one good nugget from this interview. 

"Now in his 40s, Evans is trying to prioritize a healthy work-life balance and spending as much time as possible at home and with his family in Boston.

"When it comes to seeking out the people I play it's more of an issue of where the movie shoots," he says. "I'm too old to be living out of a suitcase for six months and I've settled into a nicer phase where I'm just happy being at home."

Celebrities they're just like us, right? I like this quote and Evans in general because he gets it. Even if he's hanging in Boston, he's at least not in LA or NY. Yes, you could make the argument that Boston is NY North. Maybe from a city perspective but not from a Hollywood perspective. Either way, more of this, please, from everyone in the industry. Break down those gates and get out in the great, gloriousness of the good ol'USA or, as you'll find yourself, as Richard thoughtfully ends his Ankler piece, "...performing to a room full of empty chairs."

Black Adam Stays in the Red

Dwayne Johnson's Black Adam has had a decent run these past few weeks. This past weekend, it had a 33% drop to come in at around $18.5 million ($137 Million US/$319 Million Global.) Not too shabby, but given the complete lack of competition, you would think it would be doing slightly better. Unfortunately, with its nearly $300 million all-in production and marketing price, it doesn't look like Warner Bros will make any real money off this flick. Not something David Zaslav wanted to hear, especially with all the debt hanging around his neck.

Newly minted DC leaders Peter Safran and James Gunn have some big decisions to make. There will likely be a sequel if only to guarantee the appearance of success, but I can tell you the price tag on that film will be slightly less. Still, the bottom line is that if you're going to be spending that kind of money with an essentially competition-free calendar, you better be hauling in far more than Black Adam to be considered a financial and cultural success.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we return to modern times and a contemporary philosopher, J. Budziszewski. J. Bud (as I'll refer to him because my fingers can't keep typing that last name) is a Professor of Government and Philosophy at the University of Texas- Austin. The below quote is pulled from his latest book,  How and How Not To Be Happy, which I highly recommend:

"And the man who is ruled by his appetite for power is as much a slave as a man who is ruled by his lust, by his anger, or by his belly. Instead of riding the horse, he is letting the horse ride him."

This quote was quite relevant given the elections this past Tuesday. While this is an excellent thought on what we should look out for in our leaders, it is only something we should be mindful of in ourselves.

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Bob II Emerges

It's been a quiet few months for Bob II, aka Bob Chapek, CEO of the Walt Disney Company. No doubt needed after his dumpster fire of a summer, but he reemerged this past week at the Wall Street Journal's Tech Live Conference, where he spoke last Wednesday. 

Sporting his now trademark beard, Chapek discussed the need for Disney to find ways to merge its parks and media content divisions, mainly using the Disney+ app. He stressed he wants to be more of an experience platform versus a content platform. Frankly, this makes sense, although he underestimates the amount of resources it will take to get Disney+ to the point where it can be useful to both park nuts and content crazies. I'm surprised that Comcast has yet to invest in doing the same. Their parks business does well, and Peacock could use some help, although they seem to be making some moves in that direction (more on that below.)  

One particular aspect of Bob's talk that I liked was his reference to the battle of the streamers. As most of the CEOs have said, not all streamers will survive this battle, but I particularly liked this little nugget:

"Streaming is a critical mass business. Scale is really really important in order to thrive."

Now, most of you are probably thinking, well duh, thanks, Captain Obvious, but is it so obvious? How many of these companies dove into streaming just because Wall Street thought everyone just needed a service? For the most part, aren't all of them simply chasing Netflix? Chapek is absolutely right, but I would add one caveat. Yes, critical mass is essential, but it also needs to be done smartly. Take, for example, this past weekend. Disney released Hocus Pocus 2 on Disney+. According to Whip Media's TV Time report, it is apparently the most-watched film on streaming in 2022. Entertainment Strategy Guy has a great post (subscription required) on this and dives deep into the data. It's clear that this would have cleaned up at the box office had it been released in theaters, especially with the current competitive landscape. I understand the need to feed the streaming beast, but that is a ton of money left on the table. Critical mass is important but remember, there are other aspects of the business that are important to the overall brand. For Disney, the brand is life.

Another challenge is critical mass can also mean a firehouse of content to the point where no one knows what to watch because there is too much. Tim and I call this the "What to Watch" problem. You could spend money marketing a streaming TV show or movie until you're blue in the face, but that doesn't mean anyone is going is actually see it or that it's going to last in the cultural memory beyond last week (Remember Bird Box, anyone?) The audience needs to know where and when to find your content. Suppose Disney figures out a way to merge both parks and content onto Disney+ seamlessly. In that case, the critical mass of content has less of a chance of becoming a "throw anything at the wall and hope it sticks" strategy and more of a "seamless entertainment experience that is fun for families of all ages" success. 

Only time will tell, but it does seem Bob Chapek realizes the challenge ahead. The other streamers better wake up to this reality as well before they become the service that is either swallowed by another conglomerate or shuttered altogether (looking at you, Comcast).

Peacock Struts (a little)

Speaking of Comcast, there was some interesting news on Monday regarding Peacock and that little channel that just loves Christmas. I speak, of course, of the Hallmark Channel. This week, this little deal was announced. Although the exact specifics of the deal were not released, this could be a boon for Peacock. Hallmark Channel is a BIG business for those who are not Christmas movie freaks or Danica McKellar fans. According to Nielsen, more than 80 million people watch a Hallmark Christmas movie for at least a few minutes during the holiday season. I'm not a big fan of these minutes watched metrics, but damn, that is a massive number for a linear cable movie. Peacock wisely seized on this opportunity. This is a move that showcases that execs are starting to think outside their little LA bubble and looking for content that might appeal to someone beyond their immediate lunch/cocktail party circuit.  

In another win for Peacock this week, they snagged a prequel to the horror franchise Friday the 13th called Crystal Lake. Horror is often a big money maker, and although they won't be able to use Jason due to rights complications, this is still a beloved franchise. Let's hope they don't make the same mistakes another franchise did recently (rhymes with Shalloween.) Peacock is the also-ran of the streaming services, but with the Bravo hit shows returning home from a stint on Hulu as well as the Hallmark announcement, the numbers could begin moving in the right direction. All these moves showcase that the recently installed chief, Kelly Campbell, knows that some actions are required to get those sluggish subscriber numbers up despite Jeff Shell's claims to the contrary. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book 

I know that some of you are not religious, but most of you would agree that wisdom can be found in theological texts, no matter the tradition you follow. This week, we have some wisdom for a 14th Century monk, Thomas Kempis, from his masterwork, The Complete Imitation Of Christ:

From Book One: Advice Helpful to the Spiritual Life: Chapter 2: Of the Humility to Know Oneself:

"If you seen another person sinning publicly,

or committing some other grievous acts,

do not oblige yourself to consider yourself any better,

for you cannot tell how long you can stand perfectly upright. "

Whether one believes in sin or not, the message above is quite simple. Don't judge others harshly, for you have no idea when you might make your own mistake (which you will) and will not that judgment visited upon you. 

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DC Puts a Gunn to its Head

Do you ever watch those Taco Bell commercials, or any fast food commercial, and drool at how good it looks on screen? I'm thinking particularly of this new breakfast burrito that barely alive Pete Davidson has been pitching lately. Man, they make it look sooo good, but you know that when you actually go and order it, you're going to get a greasy sloppy mess that looks absolutely nothing like that salivating commercial. Well, that's how I feel about Tuesday's announcement that director James Gunn and producer Peter Safran are taking the reins of what is now being called DC Studios (Zaslav is taking that Marvel copying quite literally, I see.)

On paper, this does sound like that great breakfast burrito on TV, and when I read it, I was intrigued about what this could mean for DC, but then I read this:

Gunn will focus on the creative side of things, while Safran will focus on the business and production side. Both are expected to continue to direct and produce projects, respectively. 

Then this:

...according to sources, Joker filmmaker Todd Phillips' work on the upcoming sequel, which goes into production later this year, will not fall under Gunn and Safran's purview and instead will be overseen by De Luca and Abdy. Matt Reeves, who worked under Hamada, has a budding universe based on his The Batman movie. It is unclear under whose purview Reeves' future projects would fall, but everything else moving forward would be under Gunn and Safran's.

I have never been a fan of co-chairs of any enterprise. It confuses the reporting structure and certainly falls apart in a town with huge egos and constant backstabbing. Tom Rothman and Jim Gianopulos, probably the most famous co-duo in the last few years, had a bumpy start, had a few good years, and then they didn't, and it all fell apart. The last thing DC needs is more cooks in the kitchen, which, with DeLuca and Abdy still involved, is precisely what they're getting. Former Chief, Walter Hamada, made some mistakes, but at least he was the sole decision-maker, and the direction was clear. This classic split of creative on one side and business/ops on the other also never works because both sides end up bumping into each other. Given Safran's producing background, there is no way he will seed the field entirely to Gunn on creative matters. A case could be made that Gunn could care less about production and business affairs, but he'll be all about the creative until production becomes an issue. Let's not forget Pam Abdy and Mike DeLuca, who I'm sure want to keep their toe in the DC waters. It represents the crown of the WB jewel. It's Batman and Superman. They're not going to be satisfied focusing on trying to get another Harry Potter off the ground. No way. No how. 

Focusing on Gunn specifically, exceptionally few established directors will be comfortable taking marching orders from someone like Gunn, which is why the second half of the piece is revealing. Todd Phillips and Matt Reeves are the two most important and influential directors in the DC realm. The fact that Joker 2 won't fall under the purview of the new regime due to it being further along makes sense, but the whole question mark about Reeves and his place means that he is most likely not so crazy about reporting to someone like Gunn. I'm sure he had a report with Hamada, and now that's gone. Directors, especially established directors are a very finicky bunch. Still, DC will need top-notch directing talent to right the ship and get things moving in the right direction. What director will want to sign on with another director looking over their shoulder? They may be willing to take some advice from a "suit" because they have at least a slightly different perspective. But James Gunn isn't that. While he's got some decent comic book experience under his belt, there isn't a ton outside the genre to ensure a director will trust him implicitly, and DC needs directors who are outside the comic book genre. 

The reality is that the comic book universe is beginning to show signs of aging. Simply copying Marvel isn't going to cut it, and DC has shown a willingness to try different things, but thus far, the audience isn't running to the theaters or TVs to watch DC content. They must take more creative risks and get real talent behind the camera. Maybe Gunn and Safran are the answer. I'll be happy to eat crow if this works, but I'm not convinced that the burrito I'm seeing on TV will look as good at the counter. 

Superman Returns

Before the release of last week's Black Adam, word leaked that Henry Cavill would be making a return as Superman. The scene made its way to the interwebs for all to see. This week, Cavill jumped on social media to make it official: He is back as Superman. It has been a somewhat tortured road for Cavill's Superman. He made his first appearance in Man of Steel, the first film in director Zack Snyder's DC-verse, which ultimately collapsed under the awfulness of Justice League. Thus, Cavill's Superman was supposedly thrown out with the garbage. As revealed last week, former DC Chief Walter Hamada wanted to turn the focus towards a new era for Superman and move on from Cavill. Well, with his departure, Cavill gets the boots back. 

Now, here is where it will get interesting. I've always had mixed feelings about Henry's interpretation of the character. I preferred the steadfast confidence of Christopher Reeve's Superman versus the I'm so burdened with these powers Emo of Henry Cavill's interpretation. However, Cavill's Superman was physically a needed upgrade from Reeve's look in the original. One way DC could right the ship is to combine both positives of each Superman. Reeve's assured confidence with Cavill's physicality. As much as the new chiefs may want to keep pushing for the darker side of Superman because, of course, being so morally certain is "boring." Dark, brooding Superman is even worse. We get all we need with Batman, especially Robert Pattinson's version. Remember that this is based on a comic book, and a more self-assured superhero is a much-needed change in the right direction. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we're going back, back, way back to Roman times and the statesman Marcus Tullius Cicero who, as he's more widely known, "Cicero." He has quite an impressive bio, so I encourage you all to check it out if you get a chance, but for now, we will focus on this one quote:

"It takes a brave and resolute spirit not to be disconcerted in times of difficulty or ruffled and thrown off one's feet, as the saying is, but to keep one's presence of mind and one's self possession and not swerve from the path of reason...These are activities that mark a spirit strong, high, and self-reliant in its prudence and wisdom."

It always fascinates me how wisdom such as this never gets old or loses its luster. 

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DC United, Finally?

Full confession: I am a bit of a comic book nerd. Not in the "my room was once decorated with an unhealthy amount of Wolverine and X-Men posters" way, but I probably knew more mythology about any given character than the general public. This was primarily my cousin's fault, who had an outstanding comic book collection (and still does to this day.) When I started working at Fox, my knowledge of the mythology of the X-men enabled me to grasp the story better than most. I was, however, not just versed in the Marvel-verse. I also knew a fair amount about the DC-verse. That stemmed from my love of Batman, which came mainly from my older brother. He was, after all, the one who took me to see Tim Burton's Batman when I was probably still too young to go solo. 

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✓

All this illustrates how I've enjoyed the growth of the Marvel Universe since the first X-men appeared in 2000. DC however, has been somewhat of a mixed bag. They had a bright spot with Nolan's Batmans, and Man of Steel had its moments, but WW:1984 was unwatchable, and let's not rehash the Justice League debacle. However, Marvel has come to show its age as well. I couldn't find any real reason to watch She-Hulk, and I found Thor: Love and Thunder silly. I have begun to wonder if we're heading into the twilight of the comic era, but wait. Someone is riding to the rescue. A hero is on the horizon, and The Hollywood Reporter is on the case to announce his ascendancy, and that hero is none other than Dwayne "The Rock" Johnson. 

You can all detect my sarcasm in the last few lines. Yes, the Hollywood Reporter did have an "Exclusive" (i.e., Dwayne and his team wrote the article) about DC’s new era. Johnson's film Black Adam releasing this weekend is the beginning of the new era. The article also coincides with the departure of DC Chief Walter Hamada, who had the unenviable task of repairing the DC brand after the Justice League disaster. However, one interesting tidbit from the piece is that Henry Cavill's return as Superman in a recently leaked post-credits sequence was engineered over Hamada's head when Cavill's manager and ex-wife of Johnson, Dany Garcia, went to new film chief Mike DeLuca to get the go-ahead. Hamada was determined to move beyond Cavill and focus on a story developed by Ta-Nehisi Coates featuring a black Superman. No one knows where that story will fit in the new DC era as it appears a Man of Steel 2 is now searching for a writer with Cavill donning the cape, which is not necessarily bad. Cavill certainly looked the part and brought a gravitas to the role that hadn't been seen since Christopher Reeves.  

Another tidbit of this article is how DeLuca and his co-chief Pam Abdy seem to be making a play to run DC and the Warner Bros film slate, which makes sense. If David Zalsav, the Warner Media chief, installs someone to run DC Film and T.V., DeLuca and Abdy's supervisory landscape decreases when they already have a smaller purview than their fellow film chiefs. As I mentioned, the timing of this article is quite shrewd, with the movie tracking to clear $60 million, which is a downgrade from $70 million earlier in the week due to poor reviews that started rolling in. Johnson, Deluca, et al. either believe the movie will be a monster hit despite the reviews, or it's a public pitch to Zaslav to let them run the show. My money is on the latter, but this weekend will surely tell.

I miss the quality of the Nolan Batman films, and the villains of DC provide a treasure trove of interesting storylines far surpassing that of Marvel (Hello Joker.) I hope that no matter who takes the reins, they finally realize that a coherent story and filmmakers who respect the mythology are keys to DC’s success. This is something that Kevin Feige, Kingpin at Marvel, understood from the get-go, and DC still struggles with. Let's hope the next chief opened a comic book before they set foot on the Warnes Lot.

Halloween Kills Its Box Office

Oy. Well, I don't think that went to plan. Halloween Ends opened this past weekend with a domestic cume of $41.2 million (about $15 million off from tracking estimates.) A friend of the Brew, Sean McNulty, pointed out the last installment, Halloween Kills, opened to $49 million a year ago when Peacock (Ends premiered in theaters and on Peacock as did Halloween Kills) had 50% fewer subscribers. What went wrong?

First, the budget on this iteration was only around $30 million and change, so Universal will come out just fine. Also, Halloween Kills came out last year during the surge of the Omicron variant, so people were still cagey about running to the theaters, but I also think a more significant issue is that the quality of the films decreased with each installment. 

The original Halloween is probably my favorite horror movie. You can't watch the original and NOT get spooked. It was pure genius. When I heard that there was a reboot, I looked at it as a money grab, and then I saw the trailer. I thought to myself, here is a filmmaker in David Gordon Green who understands what makes the original so great. The pure manifestation of evil in a simple six-year-old boy who grows up to be one "with the blackest eyes, the Devil's eyes." The Shape who moved in the shadows. I honestly didn't care that they basically ignored Halloween 2, which explained why Myers was pursuing Laurie (SPOILER ALERT: She's his sister.) Honestly, I loved the movie, and I thought it brought life back to a turgid franchise (Halloween 4 and 5 aren't even worth mentioning, although H20 had moments.), but Halloween Kills came, and it just went off the rails. Suddenly, the dialogue became canned, and Myers became just another killer in a basic horror movie. It was almost like Green, and his writing team, which included Green and Danny McBride (yes, Danny McBride), threw in the towel and decided to go for the horror cliches. 

Well, I was completely out, and maybe I was intrigued enough to watch Halloween Ends, if only to see how they wrap up the trilogy. Then I saw the reviews, the comments on Twitter, and the Cinemascore, and I realized that nothing had been learned from their previous mistakes with Kills. This ultimately leads back to what I was discussing with D.C. You must have a modicum of respect for the mythology and, when dealing with remakes, at the very least, a basic understanding of what made the original popular. In other words, you have to understand the "Why?" Why are we telling this story? Why is the original so good? Maybe they looked at those questions. Maybe they didn't. Either way, I don't think this relatively poor opening can just be chalked up to a dual streaming/theatrical release. It is deeper than that. I hope whoever takes the inevitable next remake of Halloween grasps that basic concept. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we're trying something a little different. We highlight a selection from the Massachusetts State Constitution, the world's oldest functioning written constitution. In fact, it was written by a Brew Fave, John Adams. 

"Wisdom and knowledge, as well as virtue, diffused generally among the body of people [are] necessary for the preservation of their rights and liberties."

I've got a great idea on how to diffuse all those general good qualities amongst the populace: Cancel Social Media. Ah, if only it were that simple, but it'd be a great start.

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Bro, Seriously?

Bro, Seriously?

Billy Eichner, star of Universal's gay romantic comedy, Bros, was, shall we say, a little disappointed in the $4.8 million opening weekend for the film. So much so that he took to Twitter, a great place to emote, with this fine explanation:

billy eichner @billyeichner

Everyone who ISN’T a homophobic weirdo should go see BROS tonight! You will have a blast! And it *is* special and uniquely powerful to see this particular story on a big screen, esp for queer folks who don’t get this opportunity often. I love this movie so much. GO BROS!!! ❤️🌈

9:31 PM ∙ Oct 2, 20229,335Likes453Retweets

Now, I know how hard it is when something you pore your whole heart and soul into doesn't quite strike it with audiences. However, blaming it on homophobia in the audience strikes me as a tad overdone. Yes, there is homophobia in the country, and there probably always will be (evil does, in fact, exist.) But painting with that broad of a brush, while being very 2022, misses what I think was the more significant factor: Universal just dropped the ball with the marketing of this movie. 

If we go back to the initial trailers, it seemed like Universal had a funny romantic comedy except with two dudes, but at a certain point, the campaign shifted, and it started hitting hard on how this movie is " important" and "groundbreaking." I agree with Matt Belloni: "Audiences don't want comedies to be important; they want them to be funny." I think Universal eventually realized their biff and started cutting spots that were very joke focused, which is pretty standard in the closing weeks of the campaign, but a strategic shift usually only occurs when you have a panic because tracking is in the toilet. This is what most likely happened at Universal. 

I also think this brings something else we've often discussed at the Brew: The Bubble Mentality. Remember, the problem with Hollywood is everyone works behind gates and lives behind gates, and most of the audience does not. When execs, particularly marketing execs, start producing materials to induce them and their friends to go to the movie, you know you've lost the plot. Universal got caught up in the inherent desire on the coasts to be down with the woke. The problem is that it isn't your audience. They get bombarded with those messages constantly, and when they walk into a theater to see a comedy, they want to forget all that, turn off their brain, and laugh their asses off. I think Bros could have been that film, but marketing decided to take it in a different direction, turning off the audience. Thus, I believe Billy Eichner's anger is misplaced.

Comedies, along with horror, are still better in the theater than anywhere else. However, this result will most likely push studios to debut their comedies on streaming. Some would argue that this would have been a good strategy for Bros, but I believe we need to do all we can to keep the lifeblood in theatrical. Pushing everything onto streaming isn't going to accomplish that goal. I'm under no illusions that streaming is not a part of the future but can also exist in the same ecosystem as theatrical. Universal and Warner Bros have shown it can be successful with Halloween Kills and The Batman, respectively. I see no reason those successes can't be replicated with the right films. That said, Bros is a case where the studio got stuck in "the bubble" behind their gates and forgot the most important part: the audience. 

Smile and Put on that Happy Face

Contra the Bros bomb with the Smile success, Paramount Marketing continues its absolutely fantastic 2022 run. Granted, they did have a bit of a miss with Paws of Fury, but overall, they are crushing it. If they finish 2022 by launching Babylon, they'll have had a year for the record books. It does seem they are off to a great start with that campaign. Kudos again to Marc Weinstock and his team for keeping the mojo going. Full disclosure: aside from Weinstock, I have a couple of good former Foxer friends over at Paramount, so it makes my heart glad that they are doing so well this year. However, marketing is only part of the story here.

Apparently, Brian Robbins is responsible for pushing for a Smile theatrical release. Do you all remember that news from "The Trades" when Robbins replaced patron movie saint Jim Gianopolous? The gist was Robbins was being brought to help Paramount+ and push more content to that service over theatrical. Word on the street was Jim G was too slow to embrace the new world order; he is passionately devoted to theatrical, so Shari Redstone pushed him out for Brian. Robbins doesn't seem to be the streaming savior that was expected. He seems to be an exec not so devoted to streaming but committed to doing what is best for the movie and the company. We'll see if that continues to be the story, but thus far, Robbins has proven to be an able steward of Paramount. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we turn to oft-forgotten President Calvin Coolidge. He was president during the roaring twenties, an era of unprecedented growth and expansion, especially after the Great War and the Spanish Flu. He doesn't have the regard of a George Washington or the flashy coolness of a Barak Obama. In fact, he was a president I think some of us would love to have these days. His nickname, after all, was Silent Cal. The following excerpt is from Coolidge's October 6, 1925 speech in Omaha, Nebraska, entitled: "Toleration and Liberalism."

"At the foundation of every strong and mature character we find this trait which is best described as being subject to discipline. The essence of it is toleration. It is toleration in the broadest and most inclusive sense, a liberality of mind, which gives to the opinions and judgements of others the same generous considerations that it asks for its own, and which is moved by the spirit of the philospher who declared that "To know all is to forgive all." It may not be given to infinite beings to attain that ideal, but it is none the less on toward which we should strive." 

As many of you know, I am a firm believer in the Mark Twain adage that history doesn't repeat but often rhymes. Coolidge's words are as relevant today as they did when he spoke them in 1926. History can teach us much, as can those who have come before us. 

This Week on Hollywood Breaks

Tim and I will tackle Apple's Emancipation release, an exciting test for their new film marketing head, Dylan Wiley, and we'll chat more about Peacock and the "allocation of resources" that could lead to a very interesting future for NBCU. Subscribe, so you don't miss out. 

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Another one Bites the Dust

Another day, another studio begins its long descent into being swallowed for its library. This week's contender: Lionsgate. Some of you may say I'm jumping the gun, given that the news was that Lionsgate is only going to spin off the studio from the parent company. Although the execs will claim this is better for the company's health in the long run and it is only about injecting capital into the studio, we all know how this dance ends. This is all about making it ripe for an eventual sale and acquisition. 

It's hard to fault the executives for looking at the landscape and thinking the time might be right to make this move. As the Deadline article rightly points out, Amazon bought (overpaid) MGM for $8.4 billion last year. Lionsgate feels they have a newer and more valuable library that would make them a better deal in this market. I think we all knew this day was coming once Disney swallowed Fox. Rupert Murdoch looks like a mad genius for making his move when he did. However, we all know that this is overall worse for the industry. Another buyer bites the dust. Worse yet, another buyer who actually releases movies bites the dust. Of course, one could take the optimistic view of this and say that this might make Lionsgate longer for this world versus being swallowed up whole in some bankruptcy fire sale years down the line, and that might be true. The pessimist in me, however, views this as just another slip down the long road to borrow Richard Rushfield's phrase: "the entertainment semi-finals where only a select few studios will remain.

But, never to be one to wallow in my pessimism; this is why building up new studios, and companies willing to take risks to keep the industry thriving is essential. I am by no means fooling myself that this is in any way an easy task, but it is possible. And since I would never let an opportunity to mention Entertainment Strategy Guy's series on the American Viewer slip by, we have a roadmap to help guide the way to grab audiences. This is a large huge, diverse crazy country, and I refuse to believe that "the coasts" are the only place where great content, scratch that, MOVIES can be made. The opportunity is there as these legacy companies start to fade into the distance or look to be acquired. That's why one of the reasons I started Vision Craft Brew, and I will continually advocate for the theatrical experience and to try to save this industry from itself. As I mentioned last week, the road is long, but it is wide open to start cruising into the future. 

Barbarian at the Gate

Let's talk about that little movie that could: Barbarian. As most of you are aware, it's a horror movie that opened on September 9th to $10 million and has quietly amassed $30 million at the box office with a tiny 29% drop in weekly BO. Clearly, this flick is getting some pretty strong word-of-mouth. Oh, and it's also expanding to 500 more theaters this weekend. Not bad for a flick made on a $4 million budget. The funny thing is there was almost no campaign behind it. One has to wonder, had this been given a beefier marketing spend, would we be looking at a healthier BO? I think we would, and with a low budget, there was only upside.  

Much of this discussion has already been covered in the traditional industry trades but what hasn't been asked is this: Could this be a kink in the armor for Disney's vaulted Media and Entertainment Distribution Group? As we've highlighted on the podcast, the division, headed up by Chapek protegee Kareem Daniel, has immense power over which movies get released where and as revealed in a New York Times profile, they also set spending budgets for each content division. One has to wonder what the data told them that they decided not to put a healthy spend behind an inexpensive horror movie which potentially had a huge upside. They had to know they had a decent film on their hand, and it's horror, one of the few genres that still puts butts in the seats. 

I have no insider knowledge of who decided to keep the ad spend low. It might not even have been Kareem's division, but it does beg the question about what exactly is going on over there at Disney: a well-reviewed horror movie was shadow dumped in September and left to survive on its own. I saw more spots for the much-reviled Pinocchio than this little movie that could. More evidence of the overarching theme of the Brew: too many Chefs in the kitchen and no one willing to make that gut decision when they have a hit on their hands. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Given that we are wrapping up on the first week of the holiest seasons for the Jewish faith, I thought we would return to a source from earlier issues of the Brew, Rabbi Jonathan Sacks. He passed away in November 2020 but not before finishing his last book: Morality: Restoring the Common Good In Divided Times. The following is the penultimate paragraph of a chapter called: "The Death of Civility." A fantastic read that I highly recommend to you all.

"I have argued that the lost of shared moral community means that we find it difficult to reason together. Truth gives way to power. Uncomfortable views are excluded from campuses. To win support, people start defining themselves as victims. Public shaming takes the place of judicial establishment of guilt. Civility - especially respect for people who oppose you - begins to die. The public conversation slowly gives to a shouting match in which integrity counts for little and noise much. This is not a culture whose survival can be taken for granted. It is one that is fraying at the seams."

Wise words. We all have some work to do. Let's get to it. 

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Long Road to Hoe

So, in case you didn't already know this, I really liked Entertainment Strategy Guy's Four Part series on the American Viewer. I wrote about it last week. We discussed it on the podcast as well. I did this because an in-depth analysis is long overdue in our industry, and I want to draw as much attention to it as possible. After I wrote last week's newsletter, ESG came out with Part 5, a summary of recommendations based on his research. Again, I highly recommend you look over the entire series and consider how to act on his advice. 

I was cautiously optimistic that the series could start some soul searching in this town, and it still might but reading Matthew Belloni's What I'm Hearing from last Sunday gave me a true sense of how long we have to go until some significant change is made. It's paywalled, so I'll give you a breakdown. Essentially, the piece was about how the Oscars need to do a complete reset (D'uh), and the new leadership team finally appears to be making moves to that effect. All great so far. What was shocking to me was this:

It's gotten to the point where, when I reached out to see what members thought of yesterday's big presentation by new Academy C.E.O. Bill Kramer and president Janet Yang, most hadn't even bothered to check out the rare all-member meeting. "You must have mistaken me for someone who cares," one responded to my email. "Not for me, wish them well," said a producer via text. "On a Saturday morning? Lecturing is for church," said an exec. "Kids soccer!" 

Here we have the most vaulted organization in Hollywood: Built to celebrate and sustain the industry for years to come, and most members can't be bothered. Herein lies the problem. They don't even think anything effectively needs to change. They want the status quo to continue because it has kept them in their jobs for so long, and as we discussed, you'll have to tear that tiller from their cold dead hands. They simply don't want to help save an organization that is meant to celebrate and SUSTAIN the business once they're long gone. 

But then it got worse. In the same newsletter, Matt has a section called "Feedback," in which he posts comments he gets from readers. In the previous issue, Matt was discussing AppleTV+, and he mentioned that if Apple were to kill Apple TV+, no one would be shocked. Well, one reader took exception and responded:

"Why would you suggest that Apple kill their streamer?? [Which as I noted above he did not say] This company has been a patron of Hollywood for five years now, pumping billions of dollars into the creative economy. Who cares if anyone watches? They made my show and it's great."

Who cares if anyone watches? They made my show, and it's great. Just let the line sink in. Let me translate: Who cares if anyone is entertained? I got paid, and my name got on the screen. Listen, I'm under no delusion that Hollywood is full of massive egos where statements such as this appear as much as avocado toast on the breakfast table, but herein lies the mega-problem with the current state of the industry. No one thinks about the audience; this statement is the perfect example of that attitude. 

Thus, my cautious optimism on the adoption of some of ESG's suggestions. It's not entirely gone, but much will need to change, including personnel and attitude towards the audience, before we start seeing worthwhile and meaningful industry changes. I don’t plan on stopping, and none of you should be discouraged. We must all realize that it will take some time and effort, but in the end, we must do it, if only to ensure this wacky business' survival. 

Reboot on Reboots

Hulu has a new show, Reboot, which as the title suggests, is a reboot of a famous early 2000 sitcom. I watched the first episode, and it has potential. You can check out the trailer here. There is a scene in the pilot where the writer is pitching Hulu on remaking the show. At one point, the executive asks if anyone is still doing reboots, to which his underlings respond with this lovely list:

Fuller House

Saved by the Bell

iCarly

Gilmore Girls

Gossip Girl

Party of Five

Party Down

One Day at a Time

Boy Meets World

How I Met Your Father

The Wonder Years

Battlestar Galactica

Doogie Howser

The Odd Couple

Perry Mason 

Hawaii Five-O

It keeps going, but I won't bore you with the entire list. Anyway, I think you get the point. There are loads of reboots floating around out there, and again, this goes to ESG's research. There is an opportunity to make new and fresh ideas. Some underserved audiences and stories haven't been told, but it will take some bold leadership to get us there. ESG has given us a roadmap as a start. Who will take up the mantle? It remains to be seen. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week is a slight departure from previous issues. Today, I'm going to introduce you to a gentleman who recently passed, Frederick Buechner. Buechner was an ordained Presbyterian minister and a prolific writer. He has written more than thirty works of fiction and nonfiction. I discovered him after a great newsletter I read (Slack Tide By Matt Labash) quoted him in one of his newsletters. I started reading the book referenced: Secrets in the Dark, a collection of sermons. Regardless if you are religious or not even Christian, there is a wealth of knowledge and insight in this work. Witness below:

"What are we going to be when we grow up? Not what are we going to do, what profession are we going to follow or keep on following, what niche are we going to occupy in the order of the things. But what are we going to be - inside ourselves and among ourselves?"

Given that he is a minister, you can imagine where he thinks the answer can be found. Regardless, it is a compelling question. We ask children what you want to do when they grow up, but maybe it should be: What do you want to be? It encourages more thoughtful soul searching than merely deciding who's going to sign your paychecks when you're older; not unimportant, obviously, but perhaps not the end all be all of a person's identity. 

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Data Dump

I am, to be frank, a data nerd. I loved reading charts that break down this or that. At Fox, I was an outlier in diving into the books our research team put together about some of our TV and trailer testing. Most of the execs would only care about toplines, which are basically the summary scores, versus diving deeper. I, however, would dive right in, looking for the little snippet of information that could improve my spot or trailer. I also wanted to include our research team more in conversations with my creative vendor, but some of my supervisors actively discouraged this practice (Not Marc Weinstock, for those with inquisitive minds.) Regardless, I also saw data and research as the gold mine to crafting a well-thought-out campaign. Does it always work? No, but what does? As my former boss and friend of the podcast, Tomas Jegeus, is fond of saying: Research is like the street lamp; the sober (aka wise) man uses it as a guide whereas the drunk (aka dummy) uses it as a support. I've worked with people who view it both ways, but in today's day and age, data has only improved in the last few years: Witness, Entertainment Strategy Guy, and his four-part series from last week.

For those who don't know, Entertainment Strategy Guy or ESG has worked in roles ranging from strategic planning to business development at several entertainment companies. A few years ago, he started writing a blog called, you guessed it, Entertainment Strategy Guy. I can't quite remember how I found his site, but I was hooked after my first site visit. He now writes a column for The Ankler, but he also still writes for the ESG blog, although it is now pay-walled. I highly recommend it to anyone who wants to dive deep into industry trends and the data behind them, and his four-part series last week is a great example. The four-part series, delivered via The Ankler to whom ESG is a contributor, analyzed the American TV audience. Part 1 focused on geography, age, race, and gender, Part 2 on politics, money, and religion, Part 3 on how and where we watch TV, and Part 4 on what we're watching. 

I have to admit; there were a lot of surprises (how much of the population is still religious and how much more popular the NFL is than anything else, even after the last couple of years). Regardless there is so much to unpack in this series that every executive should immediately read it, which of course, they won't, and therein lies the problem. As Tomas once said (the guy has some great quotes), the biggest problem with Hollywood is that almost all of us work behind gates and live behind gates, whereas nearly all of the audience does not. The point was simple: Hollywood doesn't understand the audience and has never tried. I've made this point before with shows such as Succession and Yellowstone. You would guess by the press coverage that Succession was a monster hit over Yellowstone, but you'd be wrong. Yellowstone is the most popular show on television, but Succession gets all the attention because it's a show that appeals to Hollywood. Full disclosure: I watch both and think both are great, but I would argue I'm a rarity. ESG has gifted Hollywood a deep dive into the audience and calls out Hollywood for mistaken assumptions that drive decision-making contradicted by the data he presents. 

As we move into an era of significant disruption and change, I think it is a good time for all entertainment to embrace the opportunity that data offers to understand the audience and to make entertainment that they will watch. Of course, I'm not saying that movies or shows made on gut instinct should go out the window. I simply don't trust the gut of anyone in Hollywood right now. However, data can be a helpful lamp post to guide decision-making, and as ESG has shown, it is right there at your fingertips. 

Trailer Time

I've highlighted a few trailers on the Founder's Brew, but three stuck out this week. First up, The Fabelmans, Steven Speilberg's latest about his childhood:

The Fabelmans | Official Trailer [HD] - YouTube

Quite a beautiful piece. As some may remember, the podcast got its first write-up in Fast Company after I mentioned that Speilberg has transitioned from celebrating America to trashing it and hasn't recovered. Well, perhaps this could be the film where he comes back from the brink and back to the magical Speilberg, we all remember, although the co-screenwriter is Tony Kushner, who has primarily contributed to the loss of the magic. Count me cautiously optimistic. 

The second trailer this week is for Damon Chazelle's latest, Babylon.

BABYLON | Official Trailer (Uncensored) – Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Diego Calva - YouTube

I have no idea what this movie is about, but man does this trailer make me curious. Also, from a creative perspective, what a genius way to get around the film. I would love to have been a fly in the wall to watch this piece come together. I'm sure it all involved many cuts, notes, and late nights in getting it to this point, but it paid off. Well done, Paramount Creative Advertising. I look forward to the full trailer. 

Lastly, Netflix's The Good Nurse (Hat tip to Sean McNulty for calling this to my attention in his daily newsletter, The Wake Up) 

The Good Nurse | Official Trailer | Netflix - YouTube

I love trailers that use music and cut sequences to set the mood and make you feel it, even if you're watching on your computer. That is no easy feat, but this trailer pulls it off beautifully. There is another nice little trick that I won't spoil for those who want to watch but do watch all the way to the end. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

As I return to my "back to school" routines, I've begun re-reading The Daily Stoic, a book by Ryan Holiday and Stephen Hanselman. I've read the book a few times, and a new quote stands out every time I do. This one is from September 12th, following a selection by Diogenes Laertius, a Stoic Philosopher:

"But if you are already humble, no one will need to humble you - and the world is much less likely to have nasty surprises in store for you. If you stay down to earth, no one will need to bring you - oftentimes crushingly so - back down."

This quote applies to those of us who have gotten a little big for our britches at one time or another, which for those in Hollywood, almost always happens at least once in your career. Few industries can be as humbling as the one we have chosen. 

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The Definition of Insanity

Most of you have probably heard this phrase about insanity: "Doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result. I often think of that phrase when I pick up the trades. Recently, Adam Grant, author and Professor of Organizational Psychology at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania posted this on his Instagram this week:

“One of our greatest mistakes is imposing on suffering on the next generation.

The fact that you endured unreasonable demands and unclear expectations doesn’t mean others should.

The responsibility of leaders is not to repeat the errors of the past. It’s to improve the future.”

Most of us who have come up in the industry can relate. When I first moved to LA, looking to start in the business, I had a year of working at an advertising agency under my belt. I thought getting a job would be easy. Every person I met said I needed an internship because that's how you started. That was the entry point. Didn't matter the level of experience outside of "the biz." No internship. No job. You couldn't leapfrog that role and begin as an assistant. No way. I got an internship with a producer for no money and waited tables on the side to pay my bills. There is no denying that I learned more and was more successful than I would have been had I not had that opportunity, but that doesn't mean it should have been the only way to enter. 

I say all this because, as Grant notes, leaders need to improve on the past and look to the future. Look around Hollywood and tell me if you think anything like that is happening now. We've got a four-alarm fire going. With streaming proving not to be the savior many were hoping it would be and the second largest theater chain declaring bankruptcy, we've got significant problems, so a new leadership class is needed. While some have been shouting for joy at the prospect of "Gen X" finally wrestling the tiller from the Boomers, count me as skeptical. Yes, it's great that a new generation is rising to the top. The Boomers have held on too long, but has the new class been institutionalized to the point that they will be able to think differently? I'm not convinced. They'll have to break away from what they've learned rising through the ranks, if they want to leave the business better than they found it. 

That is essentially Grant's point. His most recent book, Think Again, which is excellent, backs this up by suggesting it never hurts to take another look at something, especially if new facts come to light and new experiences inform your thinking. It's quite clear that things haven't necessarily been working by doing it how it has always been. Are there things that have been proven to work regardless of conditions? Of course. No one can deny that a great trailer can launch a campaign into the stratosphere nor that a robust theatrical campaign can launch a great movie. But sometimes, a mixture of those things is needed. Sometimes a movie isn't ready to be released...ever. And sometimes, companies need to think outside the box and reinvent the wheel. (Hey Comcast, there are some great theaters out in the Philly burbs that would be perfect for an experiment. I'm thinking of one in particular. Give me a call. I'd be happy to help!) Adam Grant often posts advice that seems like a no-brainer, but the fact that he needs to post it means it's not as conventional as one might think. Let's hope the new leadership in Hollywood wakes up to the new reality, junks past mistakes, and points to a new future. 

Hollywood as High School - Part 342

Volume 1 of  The Founder's Brew talked about how Hollywood functions more or less as high school. Well, you gotta love it when your theories are presented with cold hard evidence. Witness last weekend's premiere of Don't Worry, Darling Olivia Wilde's second go around as a director after Booksmart. The Hollywood Reporter has a hilarious rundown of all the hijinx that preceded the movie's release on September 23. It reads like a bad episode of 90210. One can only imagine Chris Pine sitting in the lunch room as Harry Styles and all his jock buddies walk by and dump their food on his head. And this is only the PREMIERE! I can only imagine what will happen at the junket! Oh, to be a fly on the wall for that forthcoming travesty. 

I joke, but this whole incident shows that we're often not dealing with the most together of individuals when it comes to making entertainment and movies. As I mentioned last week, it is indeed a circus, and part of it is you deal with people who are ultimately trying to escape from something, or they're just not comfortable in their own skin. All of which can be quite the combination when thrown into the stress of late-night shoots, budget issues, and personal drama. Either way, for the sake of the crew, who I'm sure busted their ass, I hope the movie is judged on its merits and not on the hijinx of its talent. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn is a novelist and one of the most famous Soviet dissidents ever. He won the Nobel Prize for literature in 1970, mainly for his masterwork, The Gulag Archipelago, a devasting decades-long record of Soviet terror and oppression. It is quite an eye-opening read. This simple quote stuck out for me:

"A submissive sheep is a find for a wolf."

This quote also reminded me of the opening of American Sniper. We must stand fast, so we don't become the submissive sheep amongst the wolves surrounding us. 

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Welcome to the Circus

I've recently started watching the Paramount + show, The Offer, a 10-episode series about the making of The Godfather. I'm about halfway through, and it's a decent show. Watching Matthew Goode's interpretation of Paramount Pictures' Head of Production, Robert Evans, is fascinatingly entertaining. It is fantastic to see some of the setups for some of the iconic scenes from the movie, like the dinner scene where Michael takes out McCloskey and Sollozzo. However, there is also something else that is captivating about the show. There are several wonderful speeches about the beauty of movies, and one, in particular, describes why so many of us do what we do.

Both Bob Evans' and Al Ruddy, the producer, played by Miles Teller, give compassionate speeches about the theatrical experience as well as the power of movies to move people: Ruddy delivers his after seeing Planet of the Apes in the theater, and Evans' speech comes during a Gulf and Western board meeting (then Paramount’s parent company) where the mercurial head of G&W, Charlie Bluhdorn, played beautifully by Burn Gorman, is toying with selling Paramount in the middle of The Godfather production. Luckily, this clip is online. After each, I almost wanted to stand up and applaud. It's not surprising given that one of the creators, Michael Tolkin, wrote the great Hollywood satire, The Player, a harsh critique of the industry, particularly the studio system and how it treats talent, but at the same time, there was a sense of appreciation of "the business" to that film. Tolkin wanted to instill in some part of the show an appreciation for theaters and the movie-going experience given the streaming era in which we currently live - yes, I recognize the irony that a show that speaks of theaters is premiering on a streaming service. These speeches should be required viewing for anyone wishing to work in "the business." Are they a bit corny? Yes, but they capture in no uncertain terms what was and still is special about theatrical movie-going.

Speaking of "the business," there is one more great little speech that, for me, is an excellent explainer for the layman who doesn't quite understand what most of us do, nor why so many of us stress about things that the outside world view as patently ridiculous. My wife often struggles with this, especially when I'm staying up late to revise a TV spot or trailer. The speech takes place right after Ruddy and Paramount's Casting Director Andrea Eastman, played by Stephanie Koening, have told Al Pacino (played by an uncanny Anthony Ippolito) that they finally got the green light to hire him, only for Pacino to say he's taken another film. It's a crushing blow to Ruddy, who worked hard to get Paramount, more specifically Evans, to hire him. Eastman retorts by telling him this is the business we've chosen (paraphrasing Heiman Roth from The Godfather 2) and that we all essentially left home to join "the circus." To the outsider, the circus is a place to go and have a good time and watch talented performers entertain them. Would they ever want to try it themselves? No shot. Do they understand why the performers do it? Not really. And for those in the business, the circus perfectly describes the clowns and carnival barkers we deal with daily in this industry. BUT, it is also great to be a part of the circus and see an audience's first reaction to your film or trailer. Or walking in on a Monday morning after a film that caused anxiety and one too many grey hairs crushing it at the weekend box office. Yes, it is a circus, but it can be thrilling and exciting to be a part of it. 

The Offer isn't one of the best shows; the pace is uneven, and it does make it seem that the movie would have floundered without Saint Al Ruddy, which isn't that surprising given that show is based on his experience making the movie, but still, it offers several robust defenses of our wacky business and the beautiful films that often result. That alone is reason for one to appreciate it. 

I'm From Marketing and I'm here to Help

I was scrolling through Instagram the other day and came across this post from Dwayne Johnson. 

This was Warner Bros. presenting Dwayne Johnson the marketing campaign for Black Adam. I saw this and immediately felt for everyone in that room. I often prepped materials for these meetings and was in a few myself. Robin Geisen, a frequent guest on the podcast, could spin many a tale about last-minute panics and changes to decks for filmmaker presentations. These meetings can often become adversarial, especially if the filmmaker has a different vision on positioning the movie in the marketplace than you do or they don't respond to the trailer or other materials. Either way, it's not always smooth sailing. At least from the sanitized posts on Instagram, it seems the meeting went well. The last post was a video of Johnson thanking the Warner Bros. staff and everyone taking a shot of tequila.

That's great to see, even if it is sanitized for Instagram. I think it's essential for everyone working on a movie to understand that the studio "suits" aren't always enemies we're sometimes portrayed as. The studios must also recognize that the talent, producers, and directors have worked tirelessly, sometimes for years, to bring their baby to audiences. This is a conversation I often have with younger filmmakers and even some studio execs. It helps to see the other person's perspecive, especially if you want to convince them of your side of the argument. It is so much easier to walk in with the mentality that you all ultimately want the same thing: To win and make the movie as big a hit as possible.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Today's quote is from a local who used to live not far from where I'm typing this: N.C. Wyeth. Wyeth was a famous artist and illustrator. The below excerpt is taken from a letter Wyeth wrote to his eldest son, Nat, and Nat's wife, Caroline, about their nearly two-year-old son, Newell:

"To keep alive and to intensify his sense of wonderment and his curiosity about the simplest things - these will become and remain the most potent factors in his life, no matter what he is destined to do."

Tragically, two years after this letter was written, Wyeth and his grandson, Newell, were killed together when a train struck a car N.C was driving. His advice can offer us much wisdom in our technologically advanced age. Sometimes a childish wonder at the true beauty in much of the world can help us realize what truly matters. 

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They Will Survive?

The question on everyone's mind these days, aside from who's next up in the WarnerBrothers Discovery guillotine, is which theater chain will be next in the bankruptcy announcements. During last week's podcast, Tim and I discussed this a bit, and Sean McNulty had a great rundown on the financials of the chains in last Tuesday's Wake Up (Quick Summary: Imax and Cinemark: OK, AMC and Regal: Bad.) Financials and upcoming bankruptcies are crucial in the immediate term, but I think we have to start the conversation about the next phase of the theatrical experience and what it may look like a few years down the road.

First, as my co-host, Tim Thompson, pointed out, the mega-plex is dead. You all know what those are: the giant ugly square boxes usually plopped right in the middle of a mall with 15 screens. The seats are uncomfortable, and the sound system lacks quality. Most of my LA readers will probably only have a passing reference to what I'm referring to, given the numerous theaters in LA that are of decent quality, although those days are waning given the closure of Arclight and Landmark Theaters. So what does this mean? I think it means we are looking at a future when the theaters are smaller and more personable, which isn't necessarily bad. Costs will be less in smaller theaters, and they will be easier to maintain and staff. But what does that mean for the studios? Fewer screens mean less box office? Most likely, but that doesn't mean the studios don't have other potential revenue streams.

The Paramount Decree ended in the summer of 2020. The Decree was issued in 1948 and barred studios from owning any theaters forcing films to be sold individually. As that has ended, there doesn't seem to be much visibly happening, but as the inevitable bankrupcies approach, the studios will need to take a hard look at potentially getting back into the theater-owning game. Granted, Disney and Netflix have already started with each owing a few theaters around LA, but more experimentation is possible. The COVID lockdowns crushed a lot of independent theater owners, so I have a sneaking suspicion there may be a few theaters available for sale. Now is the time for some actual experimentation. Companies such as Comcast and Disney have a treasure trove of expertise to pull from, given their involvement with amusement parks, to try and reinvent the theatrical experience. Both companies pride themselves on creating phenomenal consumer experiences. Why not apply that experience to theaters? 

Exhibitors and Distributors have played us vs. them for too long now. The time is ripe for some cooperation, and it is much needed. Even if some chains can avoid bankruptcy, the long-term prospects are grim. We need to see more things like this. The big streamers need to consider theatrical as an option to increase revenue. We have evidence with The Batman and Halloween Kills that day and date isn't always a killer. David Zalslav has committed to theatrical, but we have yet to see that plan implemented. Universal stands alone as the one major that seems to be putting any substantial effort into theatrical releases. The chains need product if they're going to survive, and the studios need to provide the product if they have any hope of long-term survival. It is possible, but we should begin before it becomes necessary for survival.

Mann Up

I had an interesting conversation the other day. Someone asked me if I ever got star-struck while working at Fox. I was never impressed by the prominent actors but only by the big-name directors. Seeing a visionary like Ridley Scott walking around impressed me more than a Tom Cruise. I've always thought that the prominent directors who reinvented the business were more interesting than the other more visible actors. Michael Mann has always been one of those directors to me. From Last of the Mohicans to Heat, he has an impressive resume (with a few bumps along the way.) Does anyone remember Blackhat? I still love the opening few minutes of Miami Vice, and I can't think of any director who made LA look so attractive as Mann did with Collateral.

While he has gone silent as of late on the film side, he had quite the week last week. As Deadline reported, he not only had a number one book on the NY Times Bestsellers list, Heat 2, but he also started production on the film, Ferrari, starring Adam Driver, Penelope Cruz, and Shailene Woodley. I hope this marks a return to form for Mann. I've heard he can be prickly to work with, but hopefully, that won't stop him from putting together a great movie. Maybe someone will option Heat 2 and get that sucker made pronto. You can't beat that gunfight in the original Heat—one of the best caught on film. Let's hope we get something just as memorable in Ferrari.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we're returning to the Founders in a slightly different direction than usual. I'm sure many of you have heard of The Federalist Papers. I'm also fairly certain that most of you haven't read any of them. They used to be required reading in secondary schools but haven't been required for some time now. I was a history major and didn't even have to read them in college. Luckily, I've re-discovered them, and they are a fountain of information on our constitution system: why it is structured the way it is and why it has endured for as long as it has. Reading them, I was struck by how many of the issues we face today were similar to what they were facing then. As I was reading through an analysis written by the incomparable historian William B. Allen in his book, The Federalist Papers: A Commentary. This section from Federalist No. 14 caught my eye:

"Hearken not to the unnatural voice which you tells you that the people of America, knit together as they are by so many chords of affection, can no longer live together as members of the same family; can no longer continue the mutual guardians of their mutual happiness, can no longer be fellow citizens of one great respectable and flourishing empire."

No doubt many of the hard-core folks on both the right and left would take issues with much of that statement, but something tells me that a vast majority of Americans would find much truth in it. We would be wise to heed it today as so much around us seeks to divide. 

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