Holy Bold Move, Batman

We chatted about this on last week's podcast, but I'd like to dive into it more. I am referring, of course, to Warner Bros' decision to shelf The Batgirl film. Mostly everyone, from the talent community to execs, have blasted the move as one of short-sightedness and flogged it as a continuation of Warner Bros' destruction of its talent relations, post Project Popcorn (the previous regime's plan to dump all its 2021 releases on HBOMax.) I, however, disagree with that assessment. 

I think this was a bold and necessary move by Zaslav and his new team at Warner Bros. to reset an adrift strategy. Was it ruthless? Yes. Necessary? Yes. Discovery WarnerBros (DWB) is holding to almost $50 billion (!!!) in debt from the merger, and Zaslav has promised to shrink that significantly. According to reports, Batgirl was also in the neighborhood of $20 million over budget just from COVID expenses. That, in addition, to the apparent lousy test screening numbers, made the decision even more obvious. Warner Bros. has some stellar IP that has been mismanaged throughout the last few years. This is not entirely anyone's fault but more the result of the revolving leadership changes at Warner Bros. over the years. This may not even be the last one if some rumors at to be believed (Comcast, anyone?) Now, take this all on board and look at it from Zaslav's perspective; facing restless investors and promises he made to right the ship, he didn't believe in the movie, and neither did his new film chiefs, Michael DeLuca and Pam Abdy, so why throw more money after bad? I would argue this needs to happen more, not less.

Countless times, as a marketer, I found myself saving a movie from itself, as many in my position often do. In other words, the film was complete garbage, testing in the toilet, and it was up to marketing to save the movie. Now, I'm sure countless production people will tell me sometimes the film goes off the rails, and I get that, but at the same time, recognition needs to take place that no amount of money will ever save as film. Yes, those conversations with the creative talent will undoubtedly be tough but guess what, President of Production, that's why you're paid the big salary. Will it cause tension with talent, probably, but you know what, that may be a good thing. After the countless parade of horribles that was the earnings reports from the big conglomerates, the spending can't continue on the same course. And maybe this will force those involved in making the movie to show a little more discipline to avoid pushing their film into the "might get canceled" bin. 

COVID has brought many painful changes to the business but let's be honest; these are necessary changes. As I've been saying, until I'm blue in the face, our current industry leadership is driving us off a cliff, and at the very least, Zaslav has shown a willingness to pump the breaks on reckless spending and apply a modicum of quality control where it was needed. So keep it up, Zas the Butcher, and let's see what the future brings, at least until the next corporate warlords take over.

A Knife that Cuts Both Ways

I've been quite fortunate in my career to work on both sides of the movie biz: production and marketing. As such, I have a unique perspective on the oft-repeated debate of whether marketing is to be blamed for a movie's failure or production. Interestingly enough, when I was in production, we often complained about marketing, and when I moved to marketing, we blamed production. There is, of course, the oft-repeated phrase: "Opening weekend is up to marketing; after that, it's the movie's job." And for the most part, that essentially holds, but I don't want to focus too much on this rolling debate. I want to discuss the issue of layoffs almost always hitting marketing before production. 

I bring this up, again referencing DWB and their massive debt load and the expected layoffs if Zaslav is to deliver on the promised $3 billion in synergy savings. Most of the time, the higher-ups get canned and walk away with their golden parachutes, especially after mergers like WB and Discovery. Then, the knife comes for the lower rungs on the ladder, and almost always, marketing is affected while the production execs live to see another day. What's so odd about this is most times, the productions VPs and above almost always make more than the marketing VPs and above, so it doesn't make much sense from a cost perspective. Yes, it is true; there are typically more people in marketing, so for headcount, it makes sense, but I'd like to see some level of slicing on both sides of the movie production aisle. 

It is as tough to make a good movie as it is to market it. I often wish we, as marketers, had more time to work on the movie we're expected to sell, but that's not always the case. All this to say, Mr. Z, that when the time comes for the cuts, be sure to look at both production and marketing. We all work hard but if the cuts must be made, let's apply them to both partners in the movie-making dance (but honestly, it's really production's fault.)

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we lost a legend in historical writing, David McCullough. He died Sunday at the age of 89, a mere two months after the death of his wife. He wrote some great historical biographies of Harry Truman and John Adams, both of which were turned into outstanding HBO miniseries. He was also a legendary narrator and host of countless documentaries, including Ken Burns' The Civil War. He was also a staunch advocate for the teaching of American history and its importance in cultivating an informed citizenry, something all sides can agree we've been lacking the past few years:

"History is not just about dates and quotations. And it's not just about politics, the military and social issues, though much of it of course is about that. It's about everything. It's about life history. It's human. And we have to see it that way. We have to teach it that way. We have to read that way. It's about art, music, literature, money, science, love - the human experience."

When you think of history or your history teacher, I know most of you conjure images of the lacrosse coach who could care less about the subject he's teaching or simply the memorization of dates. I've always seen it as McCullough sees it: dramatic stories of the human experience. Hopefully, the past few years have taught us that appreciating history as such is as important now as it has ever been. 

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Welcome to the Dark Side

Celebrity has always fascinated me, particularly the American variety, which is rooted more in the movie/TV world than anything else. Throughout my lifetime, the movie star sat atop the mountain of American celebrity. The glitz, glamour, and riches all piled into one thrilling package. Then came the age of the cell phone and reality TV, fame became more democratized (how very American), and the brightness of the movie star began to fade. So much of the mystery that made the movie star such an attraction was gone entirely. Finally, with the advent of social media and the 24/7 media cycle, the mystique of the movie star completely disappeared, and suddenly, they were "Just Like Us." 

I don't mean to focus this newsletter on the fall of the movie star. That could be a whole newsletter in and of itself, but I found myself thinking about it this past week because of two things released this week: The trailer for the film, Blonde and Will Smith's Apology Part 973. Both provide two fascinating dark studies on "movie star" celebrity. First, let's start with the trailer for the movie, Blonde. Watch Below:

BLONDE | Official Trailer | Netflix - YouTube

Ana de Armas does a decent job of capturing Marilyn Monroe's confidence and deep insecurity. It looks like a solid film but also reveals a dark side of early movie star celebrity; the studio system built to control every move and the overall image of their precious investments. It didn't matter if you had any issues or problems; they were all quickly swept under the rug in service to the studio and whatever "picture" they happened to be promoting. It was the ultimate "Faustian" bargain: adoring fans and sometimes obscene amounts of money in exchange for a total loss of privacy and control over your career and life. In Marilyn's case, there were most likely handsy studio execs who looked at her as a toy to be passed around (Hello, Kennedy brothers) without any sense of worry for her well-being. Yet, this was the age when the movie star catapulted to the top of the American cultural mountain, and it only accelerated once the studio system collapsed. 

The modern movie star/studio industrial complex was born, but the same issues still existed. Personal matters were no longer swept under the rug; they seemed to burst out in the open with stars checking into rehabs, domestic issues, and untimely deaths. All while the moviegoing public couldn't look away. And then it seemed to shift. Whereas in Marilyn's time, movie stars were a version of American royalty. Admired from afar but not necessarily worshipped in a way that would excuse any behavior. The studios kept so much behavior under wraps because they knew it would affect the movie's performance, but it shifted, as so much did in the 60s, from a ton of admiration to excusing outlandish behavior, and then movie stars could get away with anything. Suddenly, societal expectations were no longer put on the movie star. They became otherworldly. Rules still apply to royalty, sometimes even more so, but with the movie stars, there were no longer any rules, which brings us to the darker side of celebrity and Will Smith's latest apology.

Will Smith released an Instagram apology earlier this week, which was his most in-depth apology since the Oscars. Yes, he had released a few statements, but this was the first time he was on camera with an apology. Matt Belloni's "What I'm Hearing" Newsletter has a good rundown of the issues with his statement, which can be read here. To my larger point, which several sources have also made since that night, imagine any other person walking up in a public setting, assaulting another person, and walking away. We all know what that would look like, yet here we are. Let's review his actions immediately following the incident: He stays at the ceremony, gives a speech in which he kinda sorta apologizes but then tries to justify his actions, and THEN parties the night away at the Vanity Fairy soiree. Only after he realized that the public turned against him did he begin to issue his mea cuplas. This latest one is undoubtedly related to his next movie, Emancipation, and the need to get the promo started if the film has any shot at success. While it is positive that there was public backlash, the problem is that we, the audience and the industry as a whole, let him believe that he could do whatever he wanted and face zero consequences. This is where the darker side of celebrity rears its ugly head; the belief that rules don't apply to them and a never-ending cascade of yes men and women who did their bidding without question. 

I think both of these situations prove that we, as an industry and an audience, need to recognize that celebrities and "movie stars" are just people and should be treated as such. While there will always be an element of our culture that wants to elevate them to another level, holding them to the same standards we all follow daily is a step in the right direction. Bring them back to planet Earth and all the responsibilities that come with it. 

Warners Bros: Party Likes it 1999

And just like that, we're back to the 90s at Warner Bros. First, Mike DeLuca, formerly of Timer Warner subsidiary New Line Cinema rejoins the fam. This week, vaulted exec and former President and COO Alan Horn rejoins as a consultant or, to use his phrase, a consigliere. You can read a quick interview with Alan over at the Hollywood Reporter. I am, as usual, slightly conflicted by this news. 

While I have nothing but the utmost respect for Alan Horn and have heard great things from people who have worked with him, and likewise with DeLuca, who introduced the world to some of my favorite working directors, it still feels like we're stuck in the never-ending washing machine of the same group of execs running the industry. I made this same observation on Twitter when it was announced that Adam Fogelson was jumping from STX to Liongsage as Vice-Chairman. Granted, I fully grasp that experience is necessary, and this being a business of relationships, it is critical to hire folks who know the other big players in this biz, but it is depressing that all of these folks are at or nearing 50 with no one slated to step into their shoes. I'd love to see someone like an Alan Horn publicly taking someone under his wings and passing along his knowledge and experience so that the industry benefits from his background but also can be prepared for the future. 

Years ago, the industry could count on movies and TV shows to lure people to work in the business, but now, with the industry changing and its cultural influence waning, not to mention the cost of living in LA or NYC, recruitment is going to become an issue. We'll be stuck with a bunch of studio exec kids, born and raised in the industry, not people from other parts of our wild and wonderful country who helped revolutionize and build the industry. It's well past time for us to open our eyes and realize that the future is nonexistent unless we start building the next generation of leaders and offer them an opportunity to gain institutional knowledge to ensure the industry's survival.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Sticking in the modern context, we turn this week to American author and journalist Tom Wolfe, an alum of my alma mater, Washington and Lee University. This little gem comes courtesy of his collection of essays entitled, Hooking Up.

"I hate to be the one who brings this news to the tribe, to the magic Digikingdom, but the simple truth is that the Web, the Internet, does one thing. It speeds up the retrieval and dissemination of information, partially eliminating such chores as going outdoors to the mailbox or the adult bookstore, or having to pick up the phone to get hold of your stockbroker or some buddies to shoot the breeze with. That one thing the Internet does, and only that. All the rest is Digibabble."

Digibabble may be my new favorite word. Wolfe wrote the above segment in response to Silicon Valley's prominent founders waxing poetic about how the Internet would revolutionize society. Wolfe disagreed with that philosophy, and I agree with him. The only thing coming out of Silicon Valley lately is hot air from Mark Zuckerberg or the latest app that will be hot for five seconds. Making us lazy and angrier at each other...yes. Life changing...I think not. 

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Managerial Madness

Summertime in Maine brings with it not just the slowing down of the day-to-day but also time for some serious reading. During the "normal" time of the year, I am a voracious reader, a "book nerd," if you will, but during the summer, with the lack of the usual distractions, time allows for even deeper dives, reading-wise, beyond just my typical topics of history, religion, and philosophy (I know, for half of you, your eyes just glazed over.) This week, during my expanded reading, I discovered a political philosopher named James Burnham. His story is quite an interesting one. Don't worry, those whose eyes have glazed over, this will tie up nicely. 

James was a former Trotskyite (aka Communist) who became disillusioned with the movement and moved to the right. In 1941, he published a book entitled, The Managerial Revolution. Burnham argued at the time that capitalism wouldn't be overtaken by socialism but by a more pernicious nonsocialist successor; not dominated by traditional capitalists (e.g., Warren Buffet) but by a managerial class who would come to own the economy regardless if they have a stake in it. He foresaw the growth of the administrative state, the alphabet soup of federal agencies that write much of the regulations that affect our daily lives. They came not from our elected officials but lifelong managerial bureaucrats making rules for businesses they don't necessarily completely understand. 

So what, may you ask, does this have to do with "the biz?" To put it in simple terms, the managerial class has already begun to overtake the decision-making that creates the content we engage with daily. For example, the rapid growth of the DEI infrastructure throughout the last few years led to the hiring of racial equity consultants in some cases. As Malcolm Kyeyune recently highlighted in a piece for City Journal entitled "Wokeness, the Highest Stage of Managerialism:

"Time was when a screenwriter would conceive of a plot and populate it with characters, drawing upon crude, inequitable instruments such as empathy and imagination; this is less and less permissible. Populating stories with various minority characters is not just encouraged but demanded—and one must do so only after employing intermediary consultants. Writing now requires intercession from a class of moral managers."

And there you have it; the new managerial managers are the woke scolds who come down on us if something doesn't fit their specific worldview. Before I get hoisted by my own petard by the Twitterati, the new diversity encompassing Hollywood has brought many new voices into the fold. As any regular reader of this newsletter knows, I'm a big supporter of this movement. However, rather than meeting in the moderate middle and encouraging additional voices from ALL sides, it comes only from one POV, and all others must be silenced. That is managerial madness on steroids. As discussed in past issues, this has only begun to stifle the creative process and brought a culture of abject fear into every writers' room and pitch meeting. Fear and diversity edicts force everyone to cower that they might be next for the cancellation or ostracized from the creative community altogether. James Burnham's book might have been written over 50 years ago, but even he could see that the freedom-crushing tactics of his former Trotskyite pals were beginning to push their way into our society which has now blossomed into Woke, Inc.  

There is evidence that the tide is beginning to turn with Netflix's continued support of comics such as Dave Chapelle and Bill Barr, who don't follow the latest PC rules. But as philosopher and author Wesley Yang recently pointed out on Twitter (yes, it is not ALL Bad, just mostly): "Wokeness has not peaked. It is not subsiding. It is consolidating power in the most consequential domains." Thus, those of us who still believe in free expression and finding new storytelling voices must continue to fight back against this managerial class when possible. I mean, who doesn't love telling the manager to stick it?

Wakanda Forever: Damn Straight

This past weekend brought back ComiCon in person for the first time since 2019. Well, almost, there were still a few virtual panels, but for the most part, it was in person. Having been to a few ComiCons, it is quite the experience. Not just the people, but the location in the Gaslamp Quarter of San Diego makes it all the more enjoyable. The best part for most of us movie/comic-book geeks is the plethora of trailers that greet the annual "geek prom." This year was no exception. There were some "meh" trailers (there's that word again,) but there were also some genuinely great trailers. I would include the trailer for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in this latter category. If you haven't seen the piece yet, I'll post it below:

Marvel Studios' Black Panther: Wakanda Forever | Official Teaser - YouTube

Typically, I'm not a massive fan of slowing down an ordinarily fast song, but here it works perfectly. It captures the mood so beautifully, and the shots back it up. I wish the consumer could understand the difficulty of pulling this trick off because it rarely works, but that is not the case here. And the quiet title read, followed by the flourish of music, also genius—an all-around fantastic execution. Kudos to the Marvel Marketing team and, more specifically, the creative advertising team. Well done!

Looking forward to the full trailer when the time comes.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

We're going to stick with more contemporary voices. This week, we'll meet Thomas Sowell. Professor Sowell is an American author, economist, political commentator, and senior fellow at Stanford University's Hoover Institution. He has a fascinating life story. I encourage you all to look more into his background, but for now, I'll offer you a quote from one of his books, Intellectuals and Society:

"Wisdom is the rarest quality of all - the ability to combine intellect, knowledge, experience, and judgment in a way to produce a coherent understanding. Wisdom is the fulfillment of the ancient admonition, "Wisdom requires self-discipline and an understanding of the realities of the world, including the limitations of one's own experience and of reason itself. The opposite of intellect is dullness or slowness, but the opposite of Wisdom is foolishness, which is far more dangerous."

Exemplary words to remember. Strive for wisdom and avoid the foolishness of the supposed intellectual who is often blind to evidence and reason. 

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It’s the Marketing, Stupid

As many of you know, I love discussing marketing, and I realize that it's not necessarily everyone's cup of tea. However, there is nothing quite like discussing the ins and outs of a successful movie marketing campaign. The strategy, the trailers, the digital, all of it mixing to event-ize a film, is just great to see as a marketing consultant. 

And then there's Netflix. Don't worry, dear readers; this will not be an analysis of their recently mixed bag of quarterly numbers. I'm sure you've all read, heard, and seen a thousand and one hot takes and what it means for the future of streaming. I want to discuss how no matter how much money they spend on marketing, Netflix can't seem to make a film feel like an event. 

As our frequent podcast guest, Robin Geisen is fond of saying, "If it's not an event for someone, then it's not an event for anyone." Truer words have rarely been spoken, yet it seems that Netflix struggles with that concept. Take Gray Man, for example, Netflix's latest mega-budgeted blockbuster. Given its price tag and star power, you would think Gray Man would be everywhere and anywhere, but it doesn't quite seem to be catching. As an avid observer of marketing, I have seen some materials, but as such, I'm not always the best barometer. I often turn to my wife to see how much a particular film is trending, mainly because she's usually on mom blogs, where a lot of pop culture conversation occurs. And what did I find when I asked her about Gray Man. Her response was, "What is the Gray Man? As in, a man who is Gray?" Now, I realize this is a focus group of one, but she often has been a good barometer on what's hitting and what's not, even if it's not her cup of tea. With Top Gun: Maverick, she knew that it was coming out reflecting Paramount's excellent campaign. Netflix, however, seems incapable of effectively event-sizing their films, and they are beginning to realize it. 

Take this recent New York Times profile on Gray Man and the Russo Bros. In discussing the marketing campaign, co-director and producer Joe Russo says, "It's very large scale. "We're doing a world tour to promote it. The actors are going with us. It feels a lot like the work we did to promote the Marvel films." And maybe they are globe-trotting, but it's not getting the press that Tom Cruise flying a helicopter did or a press-driving premiere like Cannes. And therein lies the problem. "If it isn't an event for someone…." The article even references Netflix's marketing struggles and that they haven't raised their budgets for almost three years despite increasing competition, which is nut burgers. A quick aside, I don't think I've ever seen more profiles on a studio head than Scott Stuber. I get you want your name out there and whatnot, but man, enough with the poses in the causal suit. Maybe take a Kareem Daniel (of Disney) tactic and slow-roll the personal promo. 

All of this is to say that we all know what the news reports will say after this Gray Man premieres this weekend on "the platform." Most watched ever, colossal success, blah, blah. I guarantee next weekend no one will be talking about this movie which is odd for a $200 million supposed franchise play, and it definitely won't have the legs of a Top Gun or Elvis. Yes, I recognize metrics are different, but if it was an event, people would be talking about it (like on my wife's mom blogs.) As always, I don't just want to describe a problem without prescribing a way to fix it. So what can Netflix do?

I think they need to take a harder look at how the studios manage franchises and big-picture plays. Say what you will about their sluggishness to innovate on a whole mess of issues, but they still really know the skill of event-izing. I know Netflix has a whole host of former studio folks, but I don't think Netflix Marketing is structured in a way that leads to effective event marketing. Study big recent campaigns like Top Gun and Elvis. Although the movies may not be exact, you can quickly glean what worked and what didn't, informing your decision-making moving forward. Also, steadily beat the drum. You have to feed the content beast. Start with your launch trailer, and then keep pumping out the material. I know Netflix released their first trailer, but then it seemed to go dark after that. Obviously, this doesn't apply to every movie, but big-budget pictures require a certain finesse that others do not. I realize I don't have an insider's take on the discussions at Netflix. Still, suppose folks are pushing this kind of marketing internally and getting pushback; perhaps the inevitable meh-ness (my new favorite word) of the Gray Man campaign and the not-so-great quarterly numbers will signal a sea change is necessary.

Dutton v. Roy

We discussed this topic a little on last week's podcast, but I want to dive more into it this week. As most of you may know, Succession crushed it during the Emmy nominations last week, and another audience fave, Yellowstone, was left with a stone-cold zip. The press wanted to make much of this, which is ironic considering they ignored the show for the first three years it was on the air, but after the blockbuster ratings and the expanding Taylor Sheridan universe, it would be considered journalistic malpractice, not to at least discuss the show.  

I've written about how Succession appeals to the coasts and Yellowstone appeals to a broader audience (including GASP, flyover country), so it was easy to ignore. Many a Yellowstone fan can easily say that this is elitist entertainment vs. more general audience entertainment, and those darn elitists all vote in the Emmys; hence Yellowstone gets zip, and Succession crushes it. I'm not saying anyone, in particular, has made that argument, but the press making hay out of Yellowstone's shutout was almost asking for those kinds of reactions. This may be just because Yellowstone didn't have the best season. Maybe just maybe, Succession is hitting its Shakespearean stride, and maybe just maybe, no one cares about the Emmys, so you've got to stir up drama somehow. I think that's just it. Award shows have continually shown themselves to be irrelevant, and their impact on winners has been shown to be minuscule at best. And most of the press, mainly trade press, are reliant on those For Your Consideration dollars, so their survival depends on shows like the Emmys. In reality, both shows are stories of complicated and dramatic families. And like families in real life, sometimes you have good years, and sometimes you have bad years, and the number of Emmys won't change that perception.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, I'd like to introduce you to the author, Rob McCall. Rev. McCall is the Pastor Emeritus of the First Congressional Church in Blue Hill, ME (not where I am, for those of you trying to guess) and the writer of several books, one of which, Some Glad Morning, I am currently reading. McCall writes on all topics, great and small, some from a religious perspective, others not so much. One passage stuck out in particular:

"We can tease and joke all we want about the tourists who come from a distance to visit for a few days, but it's good to remember that many of them are arriving here on a pilgrimage. They are looking for holy places. They are coming from cities and towns and places where the sacred is in such short supply that it is kept in samples and savored for an hour or so a week, places where the sacred is imprisoned in temples made by man surrounded on all sides by the secular. They come here to see sacred places that are wild, that are unbound, and they bring to these places a reverence that too many of us may be in danger of losing, seeing them day in and day out as we do. It's good to remember that they are pilgrims."

I've been coming to a unique spot in Maine for over a decade now, and this comment made me realize even more how fortunate I am to be in a place untouched by the insanity of the "outside world." It also made me realize that my annoyance at those who have recently discovered this special place is much like I was a few years back during my first trip here: not wholly getting it but knowing there was something special here. And so, for all of you who have been fortunate to have found that special place you can go to recharge, remember that you were once a tourist and how that special place reconnected you, possibly spiritually or not, but enriched your soul nonetheless. Be understanding and open to the pilgrims so they may take some of that touch of grace back with them.

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Into the Multiverse of Meh

Greetings, dear readers, from the coast of Maine, where I will be writing this newsletter for the next few weeks. Although many of you Californians will claim your state has the lock on natural beauty, a point I will not dispute. Maine, however, has the lock on magic. There is just something so endlessly magical about this place. It's difficult for me to put it into words (that's a first), but one has to experience it to appreciate it. There is no way, though, I'm going to tell you where I am less this place becomes overwhelmed with people (Ew.)

Now, on to this week's business.

Thor: Love and Thunder opened to a respectable and enviable $145 million, slightly under the tracking of $150 million. Yet, still a very impressive result. However, there is an underlying issue that Marvel will have to face sooner rather than later. Let's go the Cinemascores for the last three Marvel theatrical releases:

Thor: Love and Thunder: B+ which is incidentally lower than the much-maligned Thor: Dark Work (A-)

Doctor Strange In The Multiverse of Madness: B+

The Eternals: B (lowest score in MCU History)

Compared with some of the previous MCU Films:

Captain America: Civil War: A

The Avengers: Endgame: A+

Now, I'll be the first to admit that the science behind Cinemascore is not perfect, but typically, you want an A or A+ if you're movie is going to have what we in the industry like to call "legs." (i.e., a long successful run in the theaters.) Thus, Thor's B+ does not bode well for week 2, but we shall see if that hypothesis holds after this weekend.

I bring all this up to show that Marvel will have to confront a minor issue before it becomes a real problem later: fatigue. Full disclosure, I have not yet seen the latest Thor, and I'm only part of the way through Dr. Strange (Eternals didn't seem worth the effort.) I confess that I've begun to get slightly bored with the stories, and judging by the CinemaScores; I'm not necessarily alone. Again, MCU's box office and, for the matter streaming numbers on Disney+ are the envy of all the industry. Any studio would kill for these opening weekend numbers, but Kevin Feige (head of Marvel Entertainment) is a brilliant and savvy executive. He has to have noticed some troubling trends in their last few releases. So what gives? 

Aside from the challenges of reinventing the comic-book narrative (Bad Guy wants to destroy the world, the hero comes and saves the day), I think Marvel is struggling with audiences viewing all of these movies as one-offs. What made the first 12 years of the MCU so brilliant was they were all building to something, which was ultimately The Avengers. One only has to look at the DC Universe and the last Star Wars Trilogy to appreciate the MCU's strategy. There are some good movies in there, but nowhere near the quality of MCU. Captain America: Winter Soldier is not just an excellent comic book movie; it's just a great movie. Anyway, I think the key to continued Marvel success is to begin building anew.  

I know it's easy for me to sit here and say such things, but I think there is something to glean from their previous experience. I'm aware that Marvel may have something brewing now that might be building to an Avengers-like conclusion, but I'd say they need to get on it sooner rather than later. Of course, the big question remains what can be as good as building The Avengers? Honestly, I don't have an easy answer to that question. But now that Marvel has control over all the Fox Marvel properties (Fantastic Four, The X-Men.) There are a plethora of options they can pursue. I would love to see some DC/Marvel mash-up, but I'm pretty sure I'm dreaming. Regardless, Feige and his team have done a brilliant job with the MCU thus far, but the cracks are beginning to show. Let's hope they have a plan in place, but taking the lessons of The Avengers' success would be a great place to start. 

Maximum Goodness at HBO

I never tire of watching great trailers; it has been a while since I called one out on this newsletter. While this week in Sean McNulty's The Wakeup (a great place to see the latest and greatest trailers, by the way.) I spotted this gem:

The Last Movie Stars | Official Trailer | HBO Max - YouTube

Now, that is a well-cut piece of material—great music choice and soundbites. Plus, a great idea to open with a brief explanation of the background of the documentary. I'm getting the sense that HBOMax is starting to hit its stride a bit. They have had some good material as of late, and HBO still has it with an impressive haul of Emmy nominations on Tuesday. Given the massive job cuts coming from the WB/Discovery merger, it'll be interesting to see if that mojo holds. Regardless, I'll be watching The Last Movie Stars come July 21st! Great job, HBOMax marketers; I'm hooked. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

We shift away from the Founders to another figure who played a significant role in what many historians call our Second Founding: Ulysses S. Grant.

"I am glad to say that while there is much unblushing wickedness in this world, yet there is compensating goodness of the soul."

Such simple words from a giant among historical figures. I'm glad he has enjoyed a renaissance in the minds of the public as of late. I highly recommend Ron Chernow's Grant for a wonderfully detailed look at a somewhat simple man who rose to the occasion to save his country from ruin. Perhaps Lin Manuel's next musical will be about him? (Ron Chernow wrote the biography on which the musical Hamilton is based.)

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You’ve Got a Friend In Me

As regular readers of this newsletter know, I'm a big advocate of looking far and wide for new storytellers and stories. It's the whole founding ethos of my consultancy, Vision Craft Brew. Recently, a reporter/columnist over at National Review, Nate Hochman, gave a great speech over at ISI (Intercollegiate Studies Institute) to a group of young conservatives about the opportunities and challenges facing today's young conservatives. I encourage you all to read it (and I explain why more below), but this was my favorite part:

There's a massive opportunity here. It just takes a little bit of creativity and a willingness to actually go out and find the stories that no one else is paying attention to.

Hochman is referring more to a journalistic point of view than a creative one, but I think the lesson still holds. We need more people in the industry willing to go out and find those new storytellers. I'm reasonably confident that most people, particularly studio execs, are not reaching beyond their immediate circles of influence to find new stories, but they're certainly out there.

There is also the challenge of what I like to call the "bubble bias." Most producers, executives, writers, and the entire entertainment ecosystem come from the same ideological chamber. That, combined with the industry being hyper-located in two areas of the country (LA and NYC), traps these decision makers in an endless loop of the same perspective of everything from food to the type of scripts one reads. Nate is a conservative, but that doesn't mean you should dismiss him. You may not necessarily agree with everything he says, but merely making an effort can broaden one's perspective. 

This brings me to another point I want to make, given the highly charged events of this past week. As most of you have probably figured out at this point, I am a conservative. Do I fall in ideologically with every conservative position? No, as I imagine, most people don't lean hard one way or the other. Anyway, I've read countless stories about all these closeted conservatives in Hollywood who feel the need to keep their mouth shut. Well, I was not one of those. When my boss at Fox, just as liberal as every other studio despite being owned by Rupert Murdoch, asked if there were any Republicans in the room, I raised my hand. The only hand to go up out of about 15 in the room. The funny thing is that none of my friendships suffered as a result. Nor does anyone treat me any differently since that day. I would have vigorous debates with one of our publicists, but in the end, we always remained friendly. I'm sure other people have had very different experiences from mine. I'm also sure it's more difficult on the creative side than on the "suite" side. 

Still, I say all of this to remind everyone that the ideological rigid drive much of how we interact with one another. Twitter is not real life. We can all disagree and still see the humanity of the opposing side. This has been lost over the last few years. Frankly, I'm not sure I could raise my hand in that meeting were the scenario to replay itself today. However, we can have rational conversations if we recognize each other's humanity and realize that people's deeply held beliefs don't necessarily mean they are of a lesser species. Those rational conversations can lead us to be more willing to look beyond our "bubble bias" and find new stories so we don't have to rely on Top Gun 43 (although if the quality holds up, I wouldn't be opposed.) 

Most of you will probably say I'm living in a dreamland, but I still believe it's possible. Some folks have already made an effort. Actors Chris Evans and Mark Kassan started A Starting Point, and Corey Nathan hosts the Talking Religion and Politics (Without Killing Each Other.) Both of which feature people with whom they disagree on a whole host of issues. We are making baby steps. It's simply that more of us need to speak up and be willing to break that "bias bubble."  

Adulting at the Theater

Well, Elvis came around and surprised everyone at $31 million, and given Baz Luhrman's history, this is a good result, especially if word of mouth holds. More importantly, let's look at the demo break out from last weekend: 48% was 45+, and 30% was 55+. With those numbers and Top Gun: Maverick continuing to crush it, I think it's fair to say that the "adults" have come back to the theater. At this point, we can put the "Covid Cautious" story to bed. 

Please don't confuse this for a "Movies are Back" celebration. The industry has somewhat recovered from the catastrophic drops in attendance during the pandemic, but as Tim pointed out this past week during the podcast, the experience itself has not improved. This, ladies and gentlemen is the big freakin' elephant in the room. Netflix may be down, but it most certainly is not out, and if exhibition thinks a few good weeks are the signs of things to come, then they are still snorting whatever they were all hitting in Vegas at CinemaCon.

The last few weeks have brought people back, but only to discover that not much has changed since the last time they came to the theater. We must grow the audience pie if theaters are to survive, and that only remains possible if exhibition improves the experience. Until then, we're only rearranging the chairs on the Titanic.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Earlier this week, I was reminded of Abraham Lincoln's Second Inaugural address delivered after nearly four years of a horrific Civil War. I encourage you all to read the whole thing, but this section holds particular relevance today:

With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right, as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wound, to care for him who shall have borne the battle, and for his widow and orphans; to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and a lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.

While this is a very famous passage, it holds no less relevance now than it did in 1865. May we heed its lesson.

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What About Bob?

After my nightmarish attempt to get to Nashville, I can honestly say how much I feel for anyone attempting to travel this summer. I also have to acknowledge the airline workers who have, I'm sure, been subject to constant screaming and yelling from frustrated customers. I have a ton of empathy for what they must have endured this past week, with cancellations reaching all-time highs just as the summer rush begins. Empathy was on my mind a lot this week, particularly for one Hollywood Exec: Bob II, aka Bob Chapek, CEO of the Walt Disney Company. 

Many of you are probably well aware of the rough tenure Chapek has had as head of the Walt Disney Company. The latest "drama" was the unexpected firing of Peter Rice as head of the General Entertainment silo in the refashioned Disney Empire. Now, for the inexperienced, these types of firings typically go one of two ways. Either the town celebrates their firing, like the former head of Disney Studios Rich Ross, or they bemoan the loss of "one of the greats." It seems that Rice's firing fell under the latter category. Chapek anticipated that reaction; Disney's Chairwoman of the Board, Susan Arnold, released a statement supportive of Chapek (but stopped short of renewing his contract due to expire in February of 2023.)  

I don't want to waste time relitigating the finer points of "why" Rice was fired. All one need to do is google it, and you'll find many think pieces on the reasons: several from Rice's POV and some from Disney's POV. I want to talk more about the challenges the Chapek has faced, some no doubt self-inflicted but some just the nature of the entertainment industry in which Walt Disney happens to play. 

Obvious Statement of the Day: Hollywood Hates an Outsider. This statement has no more been proven true than by the treatment of Chapek by the Hollywood establishment. He isn't one of them. Previous CEOs, Iger and Eisner, were part of the system when they assumed the mantle: Eisner with a stint at Paramount and Iger at ABC. Chapek, however, came up from that "parks division," not the studio world. Right off the bat, he was going to be mistrusted. Did he make it easier by that silly fight with Scarlett Johanssen? No, certainly not. But I think he looked at what some of these actors were making and, like an outsider, felt it slightly ridiculous and wanted to push back. He made the miscalculation that Scarlett was the right one to make an example of. However, let's not forget that few Disney Castmembers from other Marvel franchises ran to Scarlett's defense, so maybe the case wasn't as clear-cut as the news media claimed it to be.

The Florida Law debacle again was an unforced error where Chapek made, in my view, the right decision, at first, then did a complete 180 after a few of his activist employees got upset. Please see SpaceX's recent handling of other disgruntled employees to see how he should have handled the initial reaction. It started an unnecessary fight that may have damaged a legacy family brand (more on that below.) Also, why get involved in the first place? I recall another conglomerate with a significant presence in Flordia (Comcast) that said absolutely nothing, which may be more related to the political astuteness of its CEO, Brian Roberts. Thus far, I have only rehashed what many have construed as misfires during Chapek's early tenure, but I'm not going to pile on as so many in the entertainment industry have chosen to do. As I mentioned above, he's an outsider who came after someone universally beloved for his vision and his acumen with talent. He also came right before a global pandemic slammed the brakes on one of the company's core revenue drivers. In other words, he has faced one of the most challenging environments an executive has ever met. Let's also not forget that Hollywood is just one component of a vast company portfolio. Bob Bakish of Paramount Global isn't under this kind of scrutiny, and neither is the previously mentioned Brian Roberts, who arguably most closely mimics Chapek in his company's makeup. One could counter that Disney is in the spotlight because of their dominance, but I don't think that's why Chapek is under so much more fire than other CEOs. He has attempted to rattle the cages of the establishment, which never goes down easy.

Hollywood doesn't care where you tinker around the edges just as long as the money keeps flowing. Chapek didn't tinker and is undoubtedly keeping the money flowing. Although he is keeping a close watch along with his lieutenant, Kareem Daniel. Could he have used a defter touch when comforting some of these issues? Probably, yes, but I think the bigger question will be how much Chapek has gleaned from his earlier missteps. Will he learn and adapt? Given his survival at Disney and his cleverness in surviving the Game of Thrones to succeed Iger, I think he will. I think the board will renew his contract, so we will see what the future holds for Bob II.  

Buzz -Kill

Yeah, $51 million for a Pixar film is not a great result. Yes, it had its apparent challenges (not a direct sequel, no Tim Allen, and young boy-centric.) There is possibly something bigger at play here than just the typical industry explanations. My location affords me more access to the normal way of life as opposed to the bubble mentality of LA/NYC. I think Disney's very public and frankly foolish fight over Florida's Parental Rights Bill (no, I refuse to use the other phrase that incorrectly frames the bill) has damaged the Disney brand. This is, of course, all anecdotal, but I think Disney would be wise to do some research to determine if this goes beyond mere anecdotal evidence, and perhaps, they are. However, the bottom line still holds: Disney was a cherished family brand that got embroiled in a cultural fight for no reason other than plain virtual signaling. Again, if Chapek is learning and evolving, then this will be the last time he goes headlong into a brick wall because of his woke employees. 

DWE is BECOMING A BFD

As I mentioned above, I recently attempted to make a trip to Nashville, but due to canceled flights and hours-long mechanical delays, I could not make it. What I didn't say was why I attempted to go to Nashville. It was because my friends over at Daily Wire Entertainment, more specifically recent podcast guest, producer Dallas Sonnier, had invited me to the premiere of his latest film for DWE called Terror on The Prarie, starring Gina Carano. This is the fifth flick from Daily Wire Entertainment, and I hope they keep on chugging. This industry is desperate in need of new voices to revolutionize our business. Daily Wire and Dallas have been leading the charge, so please head over, subscribe, and check out their flicks. We need them to keep shaking things up. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

John Adams is one of our most neglected founders. He was a cantankerous, grumpy, and often difficult man, which may explain his back seat to some of our more prominent founders. However, his zeal for liberty and the success of the early republic was almost unequaled. Was he a pessimist? In some ways, yes, but in other ways, he was one of the foremost constitutional thinkers during his time. Massachusettes still uses the Constitution he wrote in 1779. I pulled Today's quote from his Dissertation on the Canon and Feudal Law. Written in 1765, its purpose was to raise the alarm against the Stamp Act and its attempt to subvert the colonist's rights. While I just pulled one quote, I encourage everyone to read the entire piece. It is an inspiring defense of our liberties and rights. 

"Be it remembered, however, that liberty must at all hazards be supported. We have a right to it derived from our Maker. But if we had not, our fathers have earned and bought it for us, at the expense of their ease, their estates, their pleasure, and their blood. And liberty cannot be preserved without a general knowledge among the people, who have a right, from the frame of their nature, to knowledge, as their great Creator, who does nothing in vain, has given them understandings, and a desire to know, but besides this, they have a right, an indisputable, unalienable, indefeasible, divine right to the most dreaded and envied kind of knowledge, I mean, of the characters and conduct of their rulers."

Hard to believe this was written in 1765, but oh, how it underscores the importance of historical study. 

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They Have a Need

Well, they have spoken, and clearly, there was a need for a sequel to Top Gun to the tune of nearly $160 million in the domestic box office. As Matt Belloni pointed out in his newsletter this week, that is an impressive haul but more specifically with these domestic demos:

55 percent over age 35

38 percent over 45

18 percent over 55

I saw the movie on Tuesday in IMAX, and yes, it was incredible. I haven't enjoyed a film that much for a while now. There was even applause at the end—something I haven't seen since moving to Philly. Was it perfect? No. I found the relationship between Cruise and Jennifer Connelly unconvincing. I think it may be because I now know too much about him as a person to find any relationship with a female lead convincing. My wife considers him creepy, and she liked the original, but that's a discussion for another email. Despite that; it was still a fantastic ride at the movies. Clearly, there was an audience ready for another adventure with Maverick, but I fear that the industry is still ignoring core institutional problems at their peril. 

All weekend long, my social media feed was filled with exhortations that movies are back, and the Cruise has single-handedly brought back the blockbuster (My co-host Tim Thompson will have something to say about this, I'm sure.) I completely get the impulse. It's not a Marvel or Star Wars movie, and as I mentioned above, it got a group of moviegoers to get back to theaters that have long been thought of as the most COVID cautious. All good things, of course, but this is also a previous IP with a built-in fan base, which will only go so far. I can see it now; this will become Cruise's "Mission Impossible but with Fighter Jets." In other words, this is not enough to ensure a good comeback for theatrical. Yes, people came back, but it may have also reminded them of the hassle of going to the movies: the expense, the overpriced food, the uncomfortable chairs. The experience has not improved enough to regularly convince people to return to the movies. Now and then, there may be a movie they want to see, but that is not a sustainable business model. As they head into their weekends, the industry needs people to say again, "Hey, what's playing at the movies?" 

This is a moment of rare opportunity. The "Streaming is Our Future" narrative is collapsing. Saint Ted is off doing puff pieces to try and resurrect his company's brand. COVID is over for most of the country despite the rise in cases, as this weekend proved. The timing is ripe for a renaissance, but I fear the industry may miss its chance. With all these hallelujahs and "movies are back, baby," it's almost as if the delusion on full display at CinemaCon mere weeks ago has now spread. The moment to radically change the experience is now, but the conversation isn't headed in that direction. Perhaps Top Gun has been resurrected as a franchise, and it is excellent that Paramount and, more specifically, Tom Cruise were so committed to theatrical, but if we are not careful, they may have no choice in a few years but to release on Paramount+ as they might be the only broad viewing option left. 

Everyone Hits

Robin and I discussed this on the podcast last week, and it appears we were both right: people will find a way to watch everything. Aside from Top Gun this weekend, there were also releases of Netflix's first seven episodes of the final season of Stranger Things and Disney's first two episodes of Obi-Wan Kenobi. Judging by the numbers, consumers made time for what they wanted to see. Indeed, this proves the adage that if you make it a hit for someone, they will show up, and it appears Paramount, Disney, and Netflix did just that. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

Sticking with the Founding generation, this week, we turn to a relative unknown signer of the Declaration of Independence from Pennsylvania: John Morton. Unfortunately, John has the dubious honor of being the first of the signers to die nine months after signing the Declaration. He also had the misfortune to represent ardent Loyalist constituents, and they were not too pleased with his vote for independence. On his deathbed, he dictated a message intended for them:

"Tell them that they will live to see the hour when they shall acknowledge it to have been the most glorious service I ever rendered to my country."

While we don't have the exact reaction of his fellow countrymen after the Revolution, my guess is their descendants would agree wholeheartedly with that sentiment.

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The Oligopoly Dominates

As many of you know, I am a fan of Substack, which comes as no surprise to any of you, considering I am writing and delivering it to you, dear readers, via that very same platform. I love how I can discover new writers and newsletters that force me to rethink a topic or learn a unique point of view. This week, I found one that is no exception, and I want to discuss it this week. It comes from Adam Mastroianni, an experimental psychologist who writes a newsletter called Experimental History. Recently, he wrote one entitled, "Pop Culture Has Become an Oligopoly,' which offers a fascinating take on a topic we've discussed here: the complete lack of original entertainment. You can read the whole piece here, but I want to focus on what he says about movies and content in general. 

According to Mastroianni, in 2021, an odd year for movies and the culture at large, Free Guy was the only original release that wasn't a reboot, remake, sequel, spin-off, or cinematic universe expansion. There were only two in 2020's Top 10 and none in 2019. The fact that there were no originals in the top 10 in 2020 and 2019, doesn't mean they were none to see. We all know that 2020 was hampered by that little bug but for 2019, it could just be that no one wanted to see them. Mastroianni does present a compelling case that it isn't just the usual excuses (greedy movie studios, dumb moviegoers, etc.) that have caused this to happen not just in the movies but across all pop culture. He describes it as a shift from winners take-some to winners take-all. Hence the use of oligopoly in the title of his piece. He hammers home the point even more after you take a look at this graph:

As you can see, he makes a convincing case, and I encourage you all to read it, but I do want to focus on one primary reason this is happening, particularly with movies and content in general.

One of the biggest problems is the overwhelming amount of content choices that your average consumer faces on any given day. John Landgraf, the head of FX Networks, coined the term "Peak TV" to describe the glorious television renaissance occurring a few years back. I think we've now arrived at Peak Everything, where it has gone from an embarrassment of riches to an overwhelming cascade of just too much. Given all the choices we're facing, is it any wonder that people are going with what they know. Don't get me wrong, some of it can create great content. The expansion of the Stars Wars universe is one good example (and I can't wait for Obi-Wan.) One bright spot of the "Great Netflix Reset" is that it has shifted the streamers at least to start focusing on quality over quantity which is never a bad thing, but that isn't going to solve the winners take all problem. So what's the solution?

Mastroianni postulates that all of this creates cultural anemia that is sapping us of our imagination and robbing us of the ability to experience new worlds. He's certainly not wrong about that. His solution is to look for funky movies or TV shows that may not be getting the needed attention. However, how will we find these little treasures unless we know where to look? I think that's where marketers come in by helping consumers find those little gems. That is our specialty at VCB, but I can't do it alone. Those of us in the industry need to look for those projects that require attention and deserve it. Studios and streamers also need to spend more smartly, as Kevin Goetz suggests, by looking hard at data and not overspending when it's not necessary. Thus, the original projects will seem less risky. It's the only way we can shift the paradigm back to winners, take some and end the oligopoly that dominates our pop culture. 

Avatar: The Way of Meh

Full disclosure: I worked on the first Avatar, and it was as frustrating and frightening as you can imagine, never knowing if this would be my last film at Fox. Well, the flick was a hit, and the success of that film was a once-in-a-lifetime experience. Well, after years of anticipation, they've finally released the first teaser, and I have to say, I was...underwhelmed. Here's a look at the teaser for those of you who haven't seen it yet:

Avatar: The Way of Water | Official Teaser Trailer - YouTube

I'm not sure what I was expecting, but the footage didn't surprise me as much as I thought it would. It's been nearly 13 years since the original was released, and I guess I was hoping for some dramatic footage that would show me that Cameron has raised the bar yet again after all this time, but that sensation never came. It all felt so familiar to me. Now, I'm never going to bet against James Cameron, mainly since he's delivered many times before. Perhaps, he has a trick up his sleeve that we haven't seen yet, but it's been a looooong time since 2009. The original audience isn't as loyal as a Marvel or Star Wars audience, and many people don't remember the original. I would recommend that if Disney does have a card up its sleeve, they get to it sooner rather than later. Otherwise, this could become Cameron's first big whiff in an otherwise phenomenal career.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we're sticking with my good friend and fellow Pennsylvanian Benjamin Franklin:

"Great Beauty, great strength, and great riches are really and truly of no great use, a right heart exceeds all."

I've recently joined Twitter to promote this newsletter, VCB, and the podcast, but man, it is a dumpster fire of rage and stupidity. I'll admit it is difficult to resist the temptation to jump in on the latest argument, but I often go back to this quote from Ben Franklin to quiet that urge. If only others would lean on the wisdom of those who came before to fight that Twitter finger, how better off we all would be. 

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Netflix Becomes a Cable Channel

I'll begin this week with a personal story. A few years back, I interviewed for a gig at Netflix. They were growing at a phenomenal rate, and I, being disillusioned from my gig at 20th Century Fox, decided to throw my hat in the ring at The Great Disruptor. I admit to being excited about stepping into the belly of the beast, heralded as the future of entertainment and a great place to work that pays extraordinarily well. After suffering through years of garbage starting salaries at the studios, Netflix seemed to be the proper next step. However, after my first exec interview, I knew something was rotten in Denmark. 

As I wrapped up my first meeting, my interviewer snapped at her assistant about the next location (bad sign #1), and after receiving said location, she started to walk me over. While we were walking, we happened to pass through the commissary area (while they were still in Beverly Hills before the move to the Hollywood Tower of Terror), and I mentioned it must be nice to have all this at your fingertips. To which she replied, "It's so we never leave." And right then and there, I knew Netflix was not the great change agent that so many had heralded it to be. The level of snark and downright animosity contained in her statement made me realize that though Netflix might be rocking the boat from a distribution angle, they were still just like any other entertainment company. I ultimately didn't get the job, and it's likely they sensed my hesitation after that brief encounter, but it still looks like it was all for the better.

Flash forward a few years, and here we are. Netflix has crashed back to earth, facing the reality that the spending binge couldn't last forever, quality matters (as my co-host Tim Thompson has been saying for years now,) and advertising might be in their future. There are countless takes you can read about the Netflix reality check, so I don't want to harp too much on this, but I think it reveals something I've mentioned on the podcast before: OTT platforms are just the cable channels of the 90s. For those too young to remember, when the HBOs, Showtimes, TNTs, and other big cable channels hit, it was the new rebirth of TV. You'd get more choice, more content, and all for a slight increase in your cable bill (sound familiar?) The OTT era was going to the next shift in entertainment, albeit with bigger budgets. And yet, here we are, where everyone is preaching quality over quantity and moderation on content spending. 

What this era has ultimately ushered in is consumer choice. With the advent of mobile, the saying went that consumers want what they want, where they want, and when they want it. This was inevitable as the spending couldn't continue forever without solid proof that this was an actual profitable business. Profitability will now be a part of the questions investors will start asking. Cable companies resisted the loss of the "bundle." Now, we have the OTTs, which provide the choice consumers have wanted all along. Hence: Netflix (and the OTTs) are just unbundled cable channels. Part of me is ecstatic at this development because people may finally realize what a real movie is again. Although, as you'll see below, given the delusion happening in Vegas, I'm not particularly confident that will happen.

CinemaCon Stupidity

It's that time of year again when Hollywood distribution descends upon Vegas to hang with the potentates of the great exhibitors and the owners of the smaller shops. It's the only time Hollywood affiliates with anyone outside the Westside/LAX/Valley nexus. While it is excellent that CinemaCon is back up and running after a rough couple of years (2020 canceled; 2021 paired down), the stupidity and blinders are still in full force. Take a look at this gem courtesy of The Ankler's Richard Rushfield, the man on the ground at Caesar's:

'"..by a sudden lurch into pep rally mode as Marcus Cinemas CEO Rolando Rodriguez urged the crowd to its feet for a group chant "so they hear us in the casino" of "WE! ARE! BACK! WE! ARE! BACK!"

The chant had a doth protest too much ring, but Rodriguez seemed to realize his colleagues needed shaking out of their stupor of the past couple years. He exhorted, "We have to believe we're back. We have to say it. And we have to deliver on that." The admonitions had a slightly sad Stuart Smalley tone, but if theater owners just believe in themselves, yes, theatrical can come back!

NATO boss John Fithian took the stage in full bravado mode, declaring, "I'm pleased to announce today that simultaneous release is dead as a business model!"'

I'll give it to Rolando, who wants to pump the crowd up, but John Fithian, come on, man. Your part of the industry that barely survived is still circling the drain, and the best you can come up with is that?! How about: "We need to address the experience issue if we want audiences to choose us over their couches." At least showcase to the world that you have the slightest modicum of understanding about what is happening. But no. All you have to do is trot out Dwayne Johnson, and we'll pretend that the last two years didn't happen.

Our guest last week, Cami Sargent, made a fascinating point about the difference between streaming and theatrical: it's about the experience, which makes all the difference. EXACTLY! The exhibition industry and the industry have a real opportunity to learn from the last two years and take advantage of the current environment, particularly with the revoking of the Paramount decree. Alas, it looks like we're in for more of a Titanic-esque attitude of everything is fine, just return to staterooms as the boat sinks. The more things change, the more they stay the same. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we turn to another famous Founder and fellow Pennsylvanian, Benjamin Franklin. 

"Search others for their virtues , thy self for vices."

We've certainly flipped the script on that one in our day and age. Perhaps, it is time we go back to looking for the best in others and focus on improving ourselves. Always seeking to be better oneself is a surer way to true happiness.

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Hollywood Weenies

Soooo...what did I miss? HA! Just kidding. First off, for all those wondering, I will not be offering my thoughts on "The Slap." I think it has been subjected to more takes than Kim Kardashian trying to act in a Scorsese picture. Thus, I don't feel inclined to add to the laundry list of pieces that have since been written about that ugly incident. However, there is something that I found quite striking about the immediate aftermath. I've read a couple of pieces and heard interviews where folks have been shocked at the behavior of those at the actual show who did nothing and those who gave Will a standing ovation when he won his Oscar.

Fear has become the dominant emotion in the upper echelon of the leadership class of Hollywood: Fear of the Twitterati, Fear of being canceled, Fear of Job Loss. It seems surprising that anyone is shocked that Will got a standing O and was feted at after-parties as if nothing ever happened. I can only imagine the thoughts swirling around those seated in the front row, calculating their response once the initial shock wore off. Everyone knew Will would win the Oscar, so we can surmise that they were all calculating their emotion. And they all decided that the standing ovation was the best response. That became the dominant narrative hence the party where Smith was feted like a returning conquerer. Until the morning, when it became apparent that the overwhelming opinion was against Smith, everyone, including Smith, realized that it would only worsen.

Fear created the response that we witnessed during the telecast, but the aftermath has shown that there is no leadership left in Hollywood. No one to stand up and say that Smith was wrong. No one to say that that isn't what our industry is about, and Smith should face the consequences. After the tide turned dramatically against him, Smith released his Instagram apology. The Academy then released their statement forcibly condemning his actions. Once again, the industry leaders prove themselves a part of an over-bloated bureaucracy that refuses to contribute to the future of the business beyond protecting their jobs. Will Smith shouldn't have his career taken away but let's not pretend that the post-reaction has been one of attrition and bravery. Everyone is now in full CYA mode. So what to do? Keep forming new production companies, like the Daily Wire, to break the stranglehold that the anemic leadership in Hollywood has on our entertainment choices. Look for ways to smash the dominance of New York and LA as the only place for entertainment. The only way to break feckless leadership is to challenge them to the point where they start to lose their foothold. Many of the issues in Hollywood are beyond saving, so let's find new talent and ways to entertain. I'm game. Who's with me? 

Is CODA a hit?

Full confession: I still haven't seen CODA, but from what I've heard, it is a fantastic movie and is now an Oscar-winning fantastic movie. It seemed to be a movie that took blood, sweat, and tears to get off the ground. Kudos to all, but is it a hit? Apple is cagey with its numbers, so we may never know officially. It most assuredly will get a bump in views post-Oscars. Still, from my standpoint, outside the bubble of the coastal nexis, no one has heard of the movie. One would think, downloads aside, that if it were a hit, everyone would be blasting about everywhere and all the time. So again, I ask, is it a hit? Given the anecdotal evidence before us, I'd have to say no. 

This again goes to Apple's challenge in becoming a successful streamer. They don't have any popular shows other than Ted Lasso, and movies are a mixed bag. I still have numerous conversations with people who can't figure out where Apple TV+ is or what exactly it is. Post Oscars, Apple has positioned itself as the streamer of quality, not quantity (a position Peacock has recently started to take under new chief, Kelly Campbell.) That's all fine, but what good is it if you can't point to subsequent cultural hits that inspire people to subscribe and seek your service versus.CODA has provided excellent press for AppleTV+, but now the spotlight is on them to deliver some content worthy of being called a hit. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we continue with a Founder whom John Adams called "The bastard brat of a Scottish Peddler" and the star of a hit Broadway musical, Alexander Hamilton. 

"There is a certain enthusiasm in liberty that makes human nature rise about itself in acts of bravery and herorism."

I can't help but read this quote and think of the people of Ukraine finding their freedom and embodying the acts of bravery and heroism that Hamilton references above. Always remember our liberty is precious. Be sure to cherish and protect it.

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Why Ask Why

If any of you are regular listeners of Hollywood Breaks, you will have already heard this story, but I will give you a little background for those of you who are exclusively FB fans. This past week, I'd been assaulted by the many germs my children brought from school since they are finally mask optional (HOORAY!), but that means my immune system got its first non-covid workout in over two years (BOOO!) I found myself looking to kill some time while I languished in bed. And this, dear readers, is when the glorious options of streaming services come in handy! I began perusing for something to distract my mind from the fact that I was non-COVID ill for the first time in two years. Finally, I settled on West Side Story version Speilberg, which took me a few minutes to find...as it's on HBO MAX...not Disney. Gotta love those 20th Century Studios, aka 20th Century Fox output deals, don't ya, Bob II? After the two and half hour viewing, I find myself asking one fundamental question: Why? Why did this classic need to be remade? Why did Fox agree to remake it? What was appealing to the studio execs to greenlight this flick?

With all the content options swirling around us, we have to start asking a fundamental question before we begin any creative work: Why? The most obvious answer is because Steven Speilberg wanted to make it and who among us would say no to that. However, I think we have to acknowledge a new reality. My co-host on Hollywood Breaks, Tim Thompson, runs a workshop called Show Launcher, which helps up-and-coming producers, writers, creators figure out how to get their shows off the ground. One of the first questions he asks his students is: Why? Why do you want to make this show? And it has to go beyond just because you want to. With ever-increasing content options, audiences are more picking than ever, and simply producing something because you want to isn't enough anymore. As the Entertainment Strategy Guy laid out so brilliantly in a piece last week for the Ankler, there are so many uncertainties now from the complete collapse of theatrical (unlikely) to the still unproven business models of streaming, that just wanted to make it isn't enough. You have to ask yourself more profound questions before tackling that next big project, and asking the why is a great way to start. 

For starters, asking the why helps you dig even deeper into your thinking: Why do I need to tell the story? Why do I need to focus on this particular character? These questions and more will help any creator with a more justifiable reason for telling this story. It will also force to move into other more profound questions such as the "Where" (theatrical, streaming, etc.) and the all-important "Who." Be sure to check out Founder's Brew Vol. 4 for a deeper dive on why this is so important. Asking why won't necessarily derail your project, but I'm willing to be it will make it even better, and that's never a bad thing. 

Paramount has a potential hit on its hands.

First off, I was not a big fan of the latest Sonic The Hedgehog Trailer 2 released this week. That's not a knock on those who worked on it, but I thought this is why I don't miss working on trailers every day, so I didn't have to figure out how to sell that. Then I happened to see the Youtube numbers for the first trailer released three months ago: 32 million! Just give that number context. The Top Gun 2 trailer released almost two years ago has 19 million views. Oh, and that trailer 2 released a mere three days ago has about 13 million views. Now, success on Youtube is by no means a barometer for success at the box office, but I confess to being surprised at those numbers. The first finished with about $319 million in February 2020, right before the world shut down. They have a shot at meeting or exceeding that mark. 

I say all this to illustrate that your taste isn't always the best barometer. I confess I may not have greenlit a Sonic movie had I had it put before me, but clearly, the folks a Paramount took a deeper look at the why, pushed forward, and now they have a successful franchise on their hands. The fact that it's based on a successful video game helped, but that doesn't always guarantee success. Either way, Paramount has a potential hit on their hands.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

We'll stick with the Stoics for one more week. This week, a lesser-known gentleman, Diogenes Laertius:

"Zeno would also say that nothing is more hostile to a firm grasp on knowledge than self deception."

In other words, EGO. As Ryan Holiday and Stephen Hanselman so eloquently put it: "Ego is more than just off-putting and obnoxious. Instead, it's the sworn enemy of the our ability to learn and grow." There is much to love about this quote and Holiday's and Hanselman's comment. Our egos are the major roadblock to constant self-improvement and growth. Think of how different our industry would be if many would chuck their egos out the door. Ah well, we can dream, right? I believe the small changes start at home and can be passed on from there. So check that ego at the door, a little bit at a time, and you'd be surprised to what it will open your mind.

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Emma Cries for Help

We have yet another college student writing an op-ed in a major newspaper decrying the current cultural climate. This week, it's Emma Camp, a senior at Mr. Jefferson's University, aka the University of Virginia. Much like Julie's writing last week in the WSJ, Emma takes her case to the New York Times Op-Ed Page pages. You can read it here. To be honest, I didn't find anything she wrote to be particularly shocking. Anyone who has been paying attention to the cultural climate would not be surprised that most of the students are afraid to speak their minds. Take a look at these stats: 

According to a 2021 survey administered by College Pulse of over 37,000 students at 159 colleges, 80 percent of students self-censor at least some of the time. Forty-eight percent of undergraduate students described themselves as "somewhat uncomfortable" or "very uncomfortable," expressing their views on a controversial topic during classroom discussions. At U.Va., 57 percent of those surveyed feel that way.

I imagine if a survey was taken at most offices across the US and possibly the world, the results would be pretty similar. Emma, however, is one of the few who doesn't mind sharing her views, and she indeed is showing courage by publishing a piece in a major newspaper. She feels that viewpoint diversity is crucial to learning. However, she feels like she's fighting a solo battle and doesn't blame her fellow students for not speaking up. She writes:

"The solution to self-censorship cannot merely be to encourage students to be more courageous. Is it brave to risk your social standing by saying something unpopular? Yes. Is it reasonable to ask college students — the 48 percent of us who feel uncomfortable sharing our views — to solve this problem independently? No.

And believe me, I've tried."

"I protested a university policy about the size of signs allowed on dorm room doors by mounting a large sign of the First Amendment. It was removed by the university. In response, I worked with administrators to create a less restrictive policy. As a columnist for the university paper, I implored students to embrace free expression. In response, I lost friends and faced a Twitter pile-on. I have been brave. And yet, without support, the activism of a few students like me changes little."

In other words, why am I going to expose myself to a loss of friends, grad school, and career opportunities if I'm the lone warrior standing amidst the deluge? And who can blame her? Survey after survey confirms that what is happening on campus is true off-campus. People are afraid to say what they think out of pure fear of the "mob." Thomas Chatterton Williams summed it up beautifully on Twitter :

"Viral Twitter pile-ons instigated by media industry consensus enforcers absolutely are a form of informal censorship - specifically they produce self-censorship through the onlooker effect. People learn to be be seen committing heresies. The prix-fixe menu of views remains safest."

I realize it is pretty ironic to post a quote from the one social media source that has created so much of the censorious culture we currently live in. Still, it is true that although Twitter doesn't affect everyone, it does account for much of the fear that everyone is feeling these days. So what is to be done? How can we support Emma? Well, I think some of the more prominent names, like Dave Chappelle and JK Rowling, need to continue to stand up and not be intimidated by the mob, but given their influence, they can afford to remain on the field of battle. Emma needs more folks without the prominence or million-dollar bank accounts to stand up and not back down. It doesn't necessarily need to be a grand gesture or a particularly aggressive stance. It can be as simple as including a paragraph in your book discussing our common humanity, as Kevin Goetz did when describing the power of movies or our guest last week, Corey Nathan, advocating not to judge based on immutable characteristics. Small gestures like these will go a long way to support people like Emma. As I've mentioned before, we all recognize this isn't sustainable and is detrimental to the creative process. This is undoubtedly a marathon, not a spirit, but we will need runners like Emma to believe they are not alone. Collaboration and communal experiences are vital to crafting moving stories. We can't do that immediately assuming the worst about someone without recognizing our shared humanity. Emma and Julie have issued the call. It's time we answer. 

The Batman and a Few Dollars More

Full disclosure: I haven't seen The Batman yet. Yes, I know worthy readers, bad form, but alas, it turns out a nearly 3 hour run time makes it quite challenging to squeeze in a viewing. However, a $130 million opening is impressive and good news for the industry. Part of me does wish it wasn't another comic book movie that is raking in the dough, but it is good news for theaters.

Another interesting tidbit from this past week is an announcement by AMC that they would be charging more for The Batman (about a dollar more during the first eight days.) Matthew Belloni of Puck News has a great piece on this very subject. While it will be interesting to see if this becomes a regular thing, I'm enthused that the theaters are finally doing something to adjust to the current reality. I'd much rather they'd try and focus on the overall experience versus charging more for tickets, but at the very least, this will lead to theaters surviving longer as we slowly awake from the post-COVID malaise. Now, let's see someone take advantage of the downfall of the Paramount Decree and buy a theater! Come on, Comcast, you know you want to!  

Pages from the Commonplace Book

We return to the Stoics this week. They're just so damn good. This week, it's Epictetus:

"If a person gave away your body to some passerby, you'd be furious. Yet you hand over your mind to anyone who comes along so they may abuse you, leaving it disturbed and troubled - have you no shame in that?"

Think of how often you've gone along with the groupthink or whatever happens to be the prevailing trend on Twitter. If you agree with them, fine, but don't give over your mind so effortlessly without first thinking it through on your own. Your mind belongs to you. Protect it! 

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The Life of Julie

As the mask mandates fall away (Hawaii is the last hold out,) a sense that life may be returning to normal has begun to take hold. While the horror of the images coming out of Ukraine may prevent us from feeling complete normalcy, there is a sense of relief that the Covid pandemic might finally be receding into our rearview mirrors. However, there may be a challenge in returning to "normal" in that some may not necessarily be able to.

Enter Julie Hartman, a senior at Harvard who recently published an op-ed which you can read here. It is paywalled, so some of you may be unable to read it. Julie is frustrated by the continued distortion of her college experience by what she deems an overactive administration and a complacent student body. The title of the piece is "Harvard Students are Sheep," so you get the idea of where she falls on this issue. I don't want to try and turn this into a debate on the efficacy of COVID mitigation strategies, but one section of her piece struck me. I quote it in full below:

"For many of us, the Covid decrees over the past two years have been a relief. They have given us an excuse to retreat to our phones and computers, write papers and study for our GMATs. They allow us to avoid asking hard questions: Am I living the life I want to live? Have I put myself out there enough, taken enough risks, had enough fun?"

What I found so startling was her free admission that everyone was willing to retreat to the dark lonely world of screens but even more surprising was how said screens forced them to avoid "asking the hard questions." It isn't shocking to hear college kids questioning their life choices. We've all done it at some point in our lives, but it seems these kids have been pushed into isolation, found it enjoyable, and forgot to live life. 

This is where I think our industry needs to step it up. Last week, I wrote about the power of moving pictures and the communal experience of theatrical. We are witnessing the costs of the previous few years' decisions in the biz amongst the rising generation. Focusing on IP has its benefits for sure, but it doesn't inspire or elevate anyone who watches it. Yes, occasionally it is possible, take the latest Spiderman, for example, but that is an exception to the overall lightweight nature of storytelling these days. 

The pandemic aside, there is no doubt that our obsession with small screens has been detrimental to much of our communal and collaborative culture. As Julie notes in her piece, it's become a default comfort for many. This is why a reinvention of the theatrical experience is so crucial. Communal activities are essential to returning to a sense of togetherness that has so alluded us during the pandemic. Theaters can provide that, but only if they make the proper improvements to ensure that going back to the theaters is considered an appealing option for most people. As things return to normal, moviegoing may return to pre-2020 levels but let's not forget that the trends were already moving towards ominous even without a global pandemic.

Julie Hartman has sounded the alarm of what this pandemic has wrought upon not just her generation but many others. As an industry of inventive storytellers, we should present stories that provide an illuminating and inspiring view of life and provide opportunities to once again enjoy those stories as a community. Let's try and help give people like Julie a little more joy and happiness after two years of depression and loneliness. 

Like a Speeding Bullet

There must be something in the water in Culver City, particularly on the Sony Lot, because they seem to be the only studio with a reason to celebrate during this season of awful for most of the rest of the industry. First, the behemoth Spider-Man, then Unchartered, and now they release a trailer for Bullet Train, which is just the ticket for all of us after the last two years. I rarely get excited about movies anymore, but this one got me amped. You can check it out here. I'm all for actors, like Brad Pitt and Aaron Taylor-Johnson, stretching beyond what typically is expected of them. Kudos to Sony Marketing and the creative advertising team for putting together a wild ride of a trailer with some great sound bytes. Sign Me Up!

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we turn to a more modern source, Prince Phillip, who recently departed us. Take it away, your Royal Highness:

I'd rather other people decide what legacy I left. I'm not trying to create one. Life's going to go on after me and if I can make life marginally more tolerable for other people I'd be delighted.

What a beautiful quote from a man who dedicated his entire life to serving his country. While most of us aren't going to take up a royal mantle anytime soon, his words are valid for all of us. As an industry meant to entertain, we should take up the cause to make people's lives a little better, if only by making them laugh, cry, or cheer.

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The Power of Moving Pictures

Unfortunately, my wife didn't have President's Day off (she teaches at an International School), so it was up to good ol' Dad to plan a day trip to entertain the kids. As some of you may know at this point, I'm a huge history buff. I've begun passing on this love to my children, and given that we live in an area of the country packed with history, I figured we should take advantage. Hence, the decision to take my kids to the Gettysburg Battlefield. A mere two hours away, which meant it would be an all-day activity...perfect! 

For those of you who have never been, a visit to Gettysburg is both sobering and fascinating. Sobering because the sheer loss of life hits you when you walk through the national cemetery. Illuminating because you never realize the whole encompassing nature of the battle until you see how much of the town was involved. While the battlefield affords its positive aspects, the visitor's center is impressive. Now, before you, my dear readers, think this is turning into a promo for visiting Gettysburg, it isn't, but you should. Anyway, part of the visitors center tour includes a 22-minute film entitled, A New Birth of Freedom, narrated by Morgan Freeman. My children were instantly transfixed. They've heard the names of Abraham Lincoln, Frederick Douglass, and Robert E. Lee, but seeing and hearing them immediately captivated them. At the same time, something struck me as I sat with my two children watching this well-done film. 

I've read countless books on the Civil War watched innumerable documentaries, including the beloved Ken Burns' one. Still, I felt something more while sitting in a theater with the booming sound of cannons blasting and the voices of the principal players in that great national epic, artfully performed by talented actors. It hit me how much more powerful a piece can be when you're allowed to embrace it in a darkened theater with booming music and sound adding to the effect. When the distractions of your devices and daily life are eliminated, your focus turns to the screen in front of you. So much of what you've read hits you when it's laid before you in such a dramatic fashion.

I say all this to, yes, reinforce the importance of the theater as a truly emotional experience and how much the moving picture can bring static words and images to life. As I've said, I've read many a book on the Civil War and never felt the same way I did after watching that film. Last week, we had Kevin Goetz, Founder and CEO of Screen Engine/ASI and author of the new book, Audience-ology: How Moviegoers Shape the Films We Love, which was a great chat (which you can find here), but I want to quote directly from the book:

"We tend to think of America as a country of tribes - of NASCAR dads and soccer moms, of white collars and blue collars, ROTC cadets and hipster kids. And in many ways, I think we are that country. But not so much when the lights go down and the curtain parts. A well-crafted, entertaining movie can speak to everyone. In the darkness of the theater, people of all types and beliefs will suspend their differences for a couple of hours and just get swept away."

I thought of this quote while watching the film at the Gettysburg museum, and it is entirely accurate. I asked Kevin if this still applied when talking about the beloved streamers, but you should check his answer in the episode. I don't think it does, and that may ultimately be a big problem for us, not just as an industry but a country as well. We've become so accustomed to doing things alone that anything communal has become an afterthought. Yes, the pandemic has created some of this, but the seeds were already planted long before March of 2020. The collective experience of moviegoing cannot be limited to just big-budget IP-based titles. I know many of you are probably tiring of my weekly rants on this subject. Still, my experience this past weekend only reinforced my passion for the theatrical experience and movies in general. The power of story will always be a part of us, but the communal experience may die if we continue to isolate ourselves. Let's get out in the glorious liberty of moviegoing again! 

Spiderman Has No Clothes

Another weekend, another "COVID" hit that would have otherwise been laughed out of the room in 2019. This week's "hit," Uncharted, taking in a little over $100million worldwide ($51 Million domestic.) Given the main topic of this week's newsletter, you would think I would be happy that people are back in the theater, and to some extent, I am. Although I think the industry is diluting itself into believing that these COVID numbers are the new normal, which is not a sustainable business model. Let's not go down that rabbit hole any further. While the film may be deemed a hit, what is not, is Tom Holland and what I mean by that is he is not a movie star. 

While we most likely will be blessed with countless puff pieces and magazine spreads about how Holland is bringing a new age of movie star, that couldn't be further from the truth. He is not a movie star, and any claims to the contrary are simply trying to make mountains out of a molehill. The only reason this movie even registered is due to the game's popularity, not because Tom Holland is in it. The reality is that the movie star is dead, but Hollywood loves to try to chase that dream continuously no matter what the data say. People went to Spider-Man because it's Spider-Man, not because of Tom Holland, and they will see the next Unchartered regardless of who is in it. The sad fact is that the IP matters more than the actors portraying the beloved character. Thus, Tom Holland is not the next Leo, but that won't stop the studios from trying to make him one. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we continue with the Stoics, and this week, it's Epictetus:

"Remember that it's not only the desire for wealth and position that debases and subjugates us, but also the desire for peace, leisure, travel, and learning. It doesn't matter what the external thing is, the value we place on it subjugates us to another...where our heart is set, there our impediment lies."

Of course, Epictetus is not saying leisure, travel, etc., are horrible for us but constantly desiring those things above else can be. Don't let the things you strive for control you. You must control them. 

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The Nostalgia Bowl

The other day, John Podhoretz, editor-in-chief of Commentary magazine, had an interesting and somewhat hilarious observation on their daily podcast. He mentioned that the ads on the Super Bowl could be summed up in one sentence, something along the lines of: "Driving along in your electric car, trading crypto while drinking your gluten-free hard seltzer." Yes, that is, indeed, a rather astute observation on the overall theme of most of the ads shown during the Super Bowl, but what struck me more than anything was how much the ads and even the Super Bowl halftime show were just awash in nostalgia. 

Scrubs, Austin Powers, The Sopranoes, Arnold Schwarzenegger, and Demi Moore all appeared in the ads during the game. And let's not forget the actual halftime, which featured a plethora of hip-hop acts from the late 90s into the early 2000s. And it's not just during the Super Bowl. Think of all the shows and movies that have been brought back in the last few years: Ghostbusters, Scream, Cheaper By The Dozen, The Batman are just a few of the reboots that have been released or will be released, not to mention the countless TV shows including even The Waltons(!!!) which also has a reboot in the works. Let's not forget to include the numerous spinoffs within the Star Wars and the Marvel Universe. So what gives? What's with the seemingly endless fascination with things from the past?

Some would argue that given the unprecedented times we're in (probably the one-millionth time that phrase has been typed in the last two years,) something that harkens back to a more peaceful time is needed. Others, such as NY Times columnist Ross Douthat, would argue that we've run out of ideas due to our overly decadent culture, hence the need to go back to the well. He wrote an entire book on the subject. I'm more partial to think it's somewhere in between. As you'll see below, I don't think there's anything particularly wrong with enjoying seeing beloved characters come back for a visit. However, the dearth of original ideas is a concern, especially for those of us in a creative business. 

Tim Heindl, SVP of Research at Lionsgate, talked last week on the podcast about the innate audience attraction to "world-building," a cool term for all the spinoffs we see coming from the Disney machine and others. It definitely can lead to some exciting stories. Still, I worry that if we don't push ourselves to create entirely new characters and worlds, future generations will look back and think our ability to be original ran out somewhere in the early 2000s. We have to start pushing ourselves to be authentic as marketers and creators. The streamers need to take advantage of their copious amounts of cash and apply innovation not just to their business models but also to storytelling. Marketers need to push for original thinking that goes beyond the tried and true of the last decade. It doesn't even have to be that complicated. Look at what Coinbase did with their Superbowl Ad; arguably the most successful ad buy in the entire game. My point is that spinoff and reboots undoubtedly have their place, and nostalgia can be potent, but I don't accept that we're culturally burned out. New stories are waiting to be told; we have to stop being so cautious and embrace the, as Bob Iger would say: "the ride of a lifetime."

Universal Knocks It Out of the Park

Ok, now that I've got the whole "we need new stories" off my chest, I'm now going to praise an oldy but goody: Jurassic Park, more specifically, the trailer for the latest film Jurassic World Dominion. The franchise has been slightly uneven; the last flick wasn't so great, but man, does this next one looks like it's ready to reclaim the magic that made the first one so good. Yes, it helps that Alan Grant, Ellie Sattler, and Ian Malcolm are all back, but this trailer made me want to buy a ticket yesterday. My 8 yr old son also wants to go now too. Again, nostalgia isn't always bad.

Jurassic World Dominion - Official Trailer [HD] - YouTube

Kudos to Universal Creative Advertising for cutting an original trailer and not using a slow-paced version of a fast-paced song with someone mumbling the lyrics.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

We're going to stick with the Stoics for a bit. This week, we've got Seneca:

"He can't serve in the military? Let him seek public office. Must he live in the private sector? Let him be a spokesperson. Is he condemned to silence? Let him aid his fellow citizens by silent public witness. Is it dangerous to enter the forum? Let him display himself, in private homes, at public events and gatherings, as a good associate, faithful friend, and moderate tablemate. Has he lost the duties of a citizen? Let him exercise those of a human being. 

Ryan Holiday, the co-author of The Daily Stoic, relates a story told by Lincoln about a gentleman who came to him seeking a post as a foreign minister. When he was turned down for that post, he asked for a more modest position. Again turned down, he asked for a job as a low-level customs officer. Rejected yet again, he finally just asked Lincoln for a pair of old trousers. "Ah, Lincoln laughed, "it is well to be humble."

The story and the quote above highlight the importance of being flexible and determined in all facets of life and career. If you can't do this, try that. If that won't work, try another. We often give up too quickly and accept things as they are rather than pushing for better. Even if you hit the impossible, you always have the chance to paraphrase Ryan Holiday to be a good human being. 

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Roland Emmerich Says the Quiet Part Out Loud..Kind Of

It appears Roland Emmerich and Martin Scorcese have been swapping notes on what ails the industry, #marvel, but Emmerich has decided to up the ante by mentioning Star Wars. The director, known for his "the world is ending action" pics, laid it all out in an interview with Den Of Geek, which surprisingly didn't implode upon Emmerich throwing their hallowed gods, superheroes, under the proverbial bus. Deadline covers the more interesting bits here. So is he right? Well, kind of, but I think he points the finger in the wrong direction. 

Emmerich's main point against Marvel and Star Wars movies is that it's crowding out the original content like his latest flick Moonfall. It isn't particularly original if you know Emmerich's history, but I digress. Regardless, he's training his fire at the wrong culprit. The main reason superheroes and the umpteenth chapter of the Star Wars saga is all we see out there is because nobody in the studio world or streaming, for that matter, really wants to take any risks. One can help but watch this teaser for Paramount+'s The Offer about the making of The Godfather and not sense that the moxy that got that movie off the ground doesn't exist anymore. And before I get whacked by the Twitter Mob, yes, things were not so great in Hollywood in the 70s, particularly with how women and minorities were treated, but they did try and swing for the fences when it came to telling original stories. So what exactly happened? 

It ultimately leads back to what I've referenced in last week's newsletter, the abject fear of taking the risk and fear of anything that doesn't look like it's been done before. There are several factors, but big corporate takeovers played a part, and as the salaries and perks of the biz got bigger and better, people just didn't want to lose their seats behind the big studio desk. So many of the decision-makers are trained in a system that hasn't changed for a few decades. The captains of the various ships won't relinquish the tiller anytime soon, so the eternal cycle of superhero movies and Star Wars stories will continue. Many of you may say that they're just giving them what the audience wants, which is an easy cop-out. Nobody knew they wanted an iPhone or an iPad until they saw one. The same applies to groundbreaking content. It's precisely that kind of thinking that led to throwing everything on streaming because it's what the audience wanted. Well, if you look at this piece from the Entertainment Strategy Guy, that's going to lead the entire industry right off the cliff. Our role as content makers and sellers is to take the audience on a journey they never expected, not continually feed them the same flick over and over.

If Roland Emmerich, Steven Speilberg, and Martin Scorcese want to see changes, they have to point the fire in the right direction. It's easy to point the finger at the movies themselves, but it also comes across as if you're blaming the audience for liking these films, which smacks of elitism. Make the argument towards the studios and streamers, and then take your case to the audience. Maybe you'll start affecting real change across all content platforms. You have the money and the credibility to do it; you just need to aim the fire in the right direction.

A Netflix Hit

Holy Movies, Batman! This week, Netflix released a trailer promoting the 86(!) movies they plan on releasing this year. Yes, that is an impressive haul, and yes, my HB co-host, Tim Thompson, would most likely argue that most of them will be garbage with less than stellar production value. However, what makes this piece interesting, is the speaking to camera that the actors do throughout the piece while in character. Overall, the piece isn't anything special, but that part raises the bar. 

Having worked on several sizzle pieces such as this, I know how difficult it can be to pull that off, so this week's hit is more dedicated to the behind-the-scenes crews and marketing teams that pulled that off. It was well executed and made an otherwise typical sizzle reel stand out from the crowd—something we need to see more of these days. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

We return to one of the Stoics, Seneca, for this week's quote:

"Many are harmed by fear itself, and many may have come to their fate while dreading fate."

We are often governed by fear, which can lead us to become or do the very thing we dread. Thus, we must always control those impulses to avoid the fate that someone before us has ultimately suffered. 

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Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself

Nothing to Fear but Fear Itself

Bari Weiss may be the best thing to come out of Pittsburgh since Michael Keaton and Heinz Ketchup. Not only does she publish one of the best resignation letters ever to everyone's favorite paper to hate, she then goes on to start one of the best Substack newsletters in Common Sense. She has consistently had some of the most thought-provoking pieces in journalism, and this week's article was no different.   

Let me introduce you to Jane Kitchen. Jane, a liberal, was from a small conservative town in Arizona and couldn't wait to escape its confines to the hallowed halls of Byrn Mawr College, just down the street from where I'm typing this. At first, it was blissful, but then she felt pressure to conform to a particular viewpoint. She brushed it off and prepared for a study abroad program, and then came March 2020. You can read the rest here. The long and short of is this: the ideological conformity she felt, in addition to being at home and unable to go to campus, became so soul-crushing that she eventually transferred to the conservative college, Hillsdale. She now feels free to be herself despite her difference in opinion with most of her fellow students. 

So why bring this up in a newsletter about content and marketing? I think this presents one case where the pressure to conform to an ideological viewpoint as well as being fearful of sharing your perspective can create such despair and depression; it's soul-crushing. We know that much of this is happening in the culture at large, including in most of our content creating and marketing companies. This inability to speak your mind and share your honest thoughts leads to many things, but one of the most destructive is fear of your co-workers, fear of speaking up in a meeting about the latest trailer cut, and fear of pitching a new idea. Fear can become so encompassing that you don't even try to be creative anymore. You try what has been done before because you don't want to rock that boat. 

Seth Godin, a blogging marketing guru, had a phenomenal quote about marketing to your audience the other day. I'm going to quote it in full here:

Most marketers don't want to lead…they just want to follow.

Best practices aren't necessarily best practices, they are just marketers copying other marketers. The blind leading the blind. Just pooled ignorance.

This is also why when you do a Google search, all the paid ads say the exact same thing.

But this creates a customer experience problem. We're creating marketing messages and funnels that match what we think are great, not what our customers want to see and experience.

Don't stand for that. Stand for something better than that.

And why do marketers do all of this? I'm sure Seth would say that are many reasons, but I do believe one of the biggest is fear. As Seth so beautifully lays out in the quote above, that leads to all sorts of problems down the road. I want to challenge all of us to begin looking at our work and the opinions of others with a little more humility and respect that everyone deserves. Getting back to looking to entertain and engage our audiences requires nothing less. We want people to join this industry because of the joy of storytelling and the magic that it can produce, not to run away from it because it becomes an ideological conformist sinkhole with no escape. We want the Jane Kitchens to feel alive and free, not depressed and discouraged. Storytelling can and should be an enlightenment to the soul. We must continue that tradition as it was passed down to us. We should not let it collapse on our watch.

What Netflix Missed

In my effort to watch most of this year's awards contenders, I recently finished Jane Campion's Power of the Dog on Netflix. I'm not going to comment on the movie itself, but what struck me as I watched it on my television was how much of the film was shot for a theatrical experience. The striking vistas, not to mention the creepier bits, would have been ten times better in the theater, but it felt just like a television movie on my screen.

In his blog post this week, Matt Belloni made a fantastic point on the difference between a movie seen in a theater versus streaming. The audience doesn't develop what he calls "mindshare." Despite the hassle, going to the theater makes the film mean something. One has more of an emotional experience in a theater. I have to wonder if I might have enjoyed the Power of the Dog more if seen in a theater. 

I know I belabor this point on the podcast, but we, as consumers and an industry, really need to have a conversation about what precisely a movie is. Otherwise, Netflix will continue to push these movies out on its service and completely miss an opportunity to provide an underserved audience with a visual and emotional experience. 

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week's quote comes from our 26th President, Theodore Roosevelt. Take it away, Teddy:

"It is not often that a man can make opportunities for himself. But he can put himself in such a shape that when or if opportunities come, he is ready to take advantage of them."

The pandemic has proved a challenge, and much has broken, but this is also a time for new opportunities. We must prepare ourselves accordingly. 

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Let’s Burst That Bubble

Let's Burst that Bubble

The Atlantic has never been one of my favorite magazines, especially as they leaned hard into COVID panic porn, as this fabulous piece from Commentary's Christine Rosen astutely points out. However, they do have some solid writers, including Derek Thompson and Caitlin Flanagan, and this piece from Yair Rosenberg is a great one and kicks off this week's newsletter.

Rosenberg's central thesis is a disconnect between what critics love and what audiences enjoy. He offers a few theories for this, including critics living in an unrepresented bubble to losing sight of the audience's experience. All of which are entirely credible, but I think this applies not only to critics but content marketers as well. Just think about it. Most of the folks who produce the marketing we see for content, in particular, live on one of the coasts, which is not always representative of your actual audience. 

Additionally, most marketers live and die by Twitter love and hate. Take, for example, this new ad from Apple TV+. It is a great ad, and it has over 4 million hits on Youtube in just over four days of release, but how many know who Jon Hamm is? He spent years on a cable show which averaged about 2 million viewers, in 2015, BEFORE Netflix. Yet, it has been hailed as a hit show, hence the Apple TV+ featuring Jon Hamm. Herein lies the problem, the disconnect between those who market the content and those who watch it has only widened over the years (See Yellowstone vs. Succession for a more modern example.) I have been a part of many meetings where the discussion centered on how best to sell to the "middle of the country" with the assumption that it must be dumbed down to work. My mantra has always been that if you think your audience is dumb, your creative will be dumb. Of course, this has only gotten worse throughout the last few years as polarization has only increased. 

I recently started reading Kevin Goetz's new book, Audience-ology, a fascinating look at the movie screening process before a film releases and how the audiences shape the final product. I wonder how much more difficult his job has become now that agreeing on what entertains us becomes as political as what side of the "mask" debate you're on. Take this recent NY Times Op-Ed, which chatted with some independent voters. If your only source of news was political Twitter and the LA or NY Times, you'd be shocked by some of the issues raised by the voters. And therein lies the core issue, most marketers don't know or understand their audience because their surroundings immediately color their perspective. Yes, this is, in some ways, wholly natural, but to successfully market the next four-quadrant movie, you need to, at least, recognize that perspective.

Now, as regular readers of this newsletter know, I'm not one to throw out a significant problem without addressing some way to fix it. So what's the solution? First, marketers need to start stepping out of their comfort zones. In LA, for instance, that means spending more time in places like Torrance, not just the "West Side." You can learn a lot from just spending time in a grocery store or even a movie theater. It also means searching out more information like that Times article that breaks the broad-brush characterizations that one often finds in the media. Lastly, and probably, most importantly, a little more humility might do some good. Suppose any of us do venture outside of the comfort zone of the Oaks (Sherman or Thousand). In that case, we can't do it from a sociological perspective as the higher species checking out the lower lifeforms. We must see it as an exercise to understand better human decision-making and understand that what we like might not apply outside of our immediate sphere. It cannot be Know Thy Audience that shops at Whole Food, but it must be Know Thy Audience Who Wants to be Entertained.

A Prime Miss

My wife and I recently sat down to watch Amazon Prime's latest attempt at Oscar Gold, Aaron Sorkin's Being the Ricardos. I have to admit I was reasonably excited about this one. Tim had raved about (and he doesn't often do that), and my wife, who has wildly differing film tastes from mine, wanted to see it. That, combined with its Oscar buzz, made it a win-win. I fully admit I was somewhat enjoying it, although Nicole Kidman's look was slightly off-putting, and then my wife asked the fateful question, "How old are they supposed to be?" She made an obvious point and one I'm sure many folks who've seen the movie have also made. It took me right out of the film. In 1952, Lucy was supposed to be 41, and Nicole Kidman appeared to be around that age. However, Desi is supposed to be 35! And there is no way Javier Bardem is pulling that off. 

Now, I don't want to be the logic police, but that was way too much of a stretch. That, and aside from the classic snappy Sorkin dialogue, I didn't think the story was that fascinating. I felt I had seen it all before, and it tried to do so much: women's rights, freedom of expression, and body image. I mean, it was almost as if it was expressly made for the faculty of Harvard and the editorial board of the New York Times because it didn't miss a woke beat minus the freedom of expression. The movie mainly was also inside baseball of how a TV show comes together, which is why, I think, it's getting some Oscar attention. Most Oscar voters love movies that show how difficult it is to put together a show or movie, and yes, it is. But most audiences could care less. Ultimately, the disconnect between the actors and who they were supposed to be playing proved the greatest overcome. Amazon will have to hope for some Emmy Gold once that gazillion-dollar Lord Of the Rings show premieres because Being the Ricardos will not deliver.

Pages from the Commonplace Book

This week, we jump to the early 20th Century and a quote from Rainer Maria Wilke, an Austrian poet, and novelist. Take it away, Rainer:

"Life is not even close to being as logically consistent as our worries; it has many more unexpected ideas and many more facts than we do." 

Indeed, worry never really makes things better, and too often can make you take your eye off what should be the focus. To paraphrase John Lennon: Life is what happens when you're busy worrying about something else. 

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Spiderman’s Missed Opportunity

Spiderman’s Missed Opportunity

So, thanks to shouts from our Hollywood Breaks audience, I finally hunkered down and saw all three Tom Holland Spiderman movies, including the most recent, No Way Home. Admittedly, I was a little behind the eight-ball, but it was great to be back in a theater. As I was sitting in the mostly empty theater, I realized how much I love coming to theaters and movies in general. The lights dimming down, the screen widening, and the first green card for a trailer popping up were all things I forgot made the experience so enjoyable. Not only that, but the movie was rather good as well. I have to admit it was pretty cool seeing Holland, Maguire, and Garfield all in one film. Kudos to the filmmakers (and business affairs execs) for being able to pull that off. BUT, I couldn't help thinking there was a missed opportunity here: for both theaters and the industry at large.

No Way Home has thus far brought in a little over $700 million domestically and over $1.6 BILLION (!!!) worldwide. It is undoubtedly a phenomenal success. Yet, where is everyone? Where are the film exes, not just Tom Rothman, shouting how great this is for the business? Where are the "movie stars' and not just Tom Holland, screaming how great it is to have movies being a part of the cultural conversation again? This film (released only in theaters with no corporate streaming partner) will most likely become one of the highest-grossing movies, if not the highest. There is not a peep from anyone talking about the importance of movies or the theatrical experience. Yes, you had your glad-handing and back-slapping, which is typical for a successful release, but no one thought maybe, just maybe, this might be a way to talk up movies and theaters. Since the pandemic began, the prevailing narrative has been that people have become comfortable sitting at home and want day/date releases. Yes, that is essentially where the winds are heading, but Spiderman provided an opportunity to flip the script. Personally, the film was a stark reminder of what is so great about movies and going to the movies. An experience that cannot be captured sitting on your couch with your remote in hand.

Now, for those naysayers who claim theaters and movies are on the road to extinction, and the future is all metaverse and streaming, some signs indicate that is not necessarily the case. Here is City Journal's Bruno Maçães with this phenomenal piece on the metaverse and how it may not be all it's cracked up to be. Maçães writes:

"The metaverse is like a drug—one so powerful as to break our connection with the world around us...Humanity is now at a fork in the road: in one direction lies the exploration of outer space; the other leads inward toward virtual reality, the 'dead-end of entertainment."

We, humans, are hard-wired to be engaged across all our senses, and the meta-verse isn't going to be able to provide that stimulation. Movies still can, particularly in a theatrical experience. And if anyone would try to innovate the experience who knows what the future holds. 

There's also the never-ending worry about the loss of the younger audience, which is still a threat. However, just this week, an article in Entrepreneur magazine stated that one of the best ways for marketers to reach Millenials was not through texting or email but greeting cards. In fact, they spend more on greeting cards than any other generation. Now, this is not to say that it'd be easy to get them back to theaters, but it does suggest that they are open to sticking to more traditional forms of consumption if pointed in the right direction. That is the opportunity the industry missed with No Way Home and why the lack of leadership continues to spiral into an outright crisis. 

Scream more Miss than Hit

Scream opened to $33 million this past weekend (press reports pegged it at $35, but those were just estimates), and as expected, the loud hosannas came forth that this was a HIT for Paramount. To some extent, it was. Scream 4, released in 2011, made $38 million in its TOTAL domestic run finishing off at $97 million globally. In that sense, this is a victory for Paramount in that they kind of rebooted a franchise. Press reports have also raved that the modest budget of $25 million makes it an even bigger hit because the movie might be profitable (GASP!) However, if we look at a comparable horror movie, Halloween Kills, it made $49 million in its opening weekend, AND it was day/date on Peacock. If you want to argue that isn't a fair comparison because it was part 2 in an already rebooted franchise, Halloween, released in 2019, opened to $76 million. Yes, pre-pandemic, but that flick arguably had a steeper hill to climb given how the franchise had been left for dead. 

I realize that everyone in the industry wants to proclaim every movie that does a decent open is a hit, especially during COVID. Still, for most of the country, COVID is over. People are going to movies, bars, and restaurants. Despite reports of overwhelmed hospitals and screeching from the media, a vast majority of the populace has returned to normal. As such, the barometers of what merits a hit must as well, and Scream is more miss than hit by the normal standard. 

Pages from The Commonplace Book

On January 14, 1766, William Pitt, the "Great Commoner" and the minister most responsible for Great Britain's success in winning the Seven Years War (aka The French and Indian War,) gave a speech in Parliament in opposition to the Stamp Act, basically the Act that started the brouhaha that led to the American Revolution. He proclaimed that the Brits had no right to take money from the colonists. Still, in a blatant contradiction, he claimed Britain did have the right "to bind, to restrain American" and that its "legislative power over the colonies is sovereign and supreme." Yeah, no confusion there.   

William Hicks, a colonist, pointed out this blatant inconsistency in a series of essays originally published in the Pennsylvania Journal early in 1768. This week's quote comes from those essays:

"...no people can ever continue long in the exercise of liberty unless they maintain the resolution to think for themselves."

Yet another quote that is unquestionably timeless. Not just for the obvious reasons, but for our industry as a whole. How different would it be if everyone was able to think for themselves? A great thought to ponder.

This Week on Hollywood Breaks

This week, Tim and I kick off our killer 2022 guest list with Sean Haran, Chief Business Officer of Gearbox Software. We'll be chatting updates on the Borderlands feature adaptation, Microsoft's recent acquisition of Activision, and much more. Don't miss it.

See you next week! 

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